Interesting Election Tidbits From Rasmussen Polls

This is just a collection of Rasmussen’s findings on the Presidential race, on the attitudes of Democratic women for the Obama-Biden ticket, on Democrats’ and Republicans’ registration efforts, on which Presidential candidate is more trusted in National Security, and on the electoral college race, as of August 28:

On the Presidential Race:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama. The Democrat gained a point from yesterday and now attracts 45% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 47% (see recent daily results).

On how Democratic women feel about the Obama-Biden ticket:

Nearly half of Democratic women (47%) say Barack Obama should have chosen Hillary Clinton for his running mate instead of Senator Joseph Biden as the former First Lady prepares to speak tonight at the Democratic National Convention. Thirty-nine percent (39%) disagree.

But a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that a sizable majority (57%) of Democratic women believe that Obama is the Democratic candidate who will do best against John McCain in the November election. See crosstabs by gender within party.

On the success of Democrat’s relative to Republican’s voter drives:

During July, the number of Americans who consider themselves to be Democrats fell two percentage points to 39.2%. That’s the first time since January that the number of Democrats has fallen below 41% (see history from January 2004 to present).

While the number of Democrats declined, there was virtually no change in the number of Republicans. In July, 31.6% said they were Republicans, the fourth straight month that number has been below 31.4% and 31.6%.

The Democrats now have a 7.6 percentage point advantage over the Republicans, down from a 9.5 percentage point advantage in June and 10.1 percentage points in May.

Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based upon telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002.

Among men, 34% are Democrats, 33% Republican. Forty-four percent (44%) of women are Democrats, and just 30% claim the GOP as their party.

Forty-one percent (41%) of government employees are Democrats while 31% are Republicans. Among entrepreneurs, 36% are Republican, 34% Democrat. Those who work for someone else in the private sector lean Democratic by a 38% to 31% margin.

In January and February, while Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were in the early stages of the battle for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, the number of Americans who considered themselves to be Democrats surged to record highs.

In 2004, the Democrats began the year with a 2.3 percentage point edge over the GOP. That grew to 4.0 points by March before moving in the Republican direction for the rest of the year. By Election Day in 2004, the edge for Democrats was a mere 1.6 percentage points.

In 2006, the Democrats began the year with just a 1.6 percentage point advantage. That grew to 6.1 percentage points by November.

On which Presidential Candidate is more trusted on National Security:

National security is the issue of the day at the Democratic National Convention, but it wasn’t supposed to be this way. Democrats were planning on riding opposition to the highly unpopular war in Iraq right into the White House.

Instead, Barack Obama is begrudgingly admitting the “surge” of additional troops into Iraq has worked, and Hillary Clinton told the convention Tuesday night that, if elected, Obama will “end the war … responsibly,” with no mention of a timetable.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that voters trust Republican presidential candidate John McCain over Obama on national security issues 52% to 41%.

Nationally, for weeks the race between the two men has been a dead heart in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, with oddly enough McCain showing slight momentum this week following the announcement of Joe Biden as Obama’s running mate.

Over half of voters (51%) also continue to believe that it is at least somewhat likely that the United States will win the war in Iraq if McCain is elected, while only 30% believe that to be the case should Obama win the White House. Sixty-one percent (61%) think the United States is not likely to win if Obama is elected, compared to 41% who feel that way about McCain.

At the same time, voter confidence in how America is fighting the War on Terror is at the highest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports. The latest national telephone survey finds that 54% of voters now think the United States and its allies are winning the war. Just 19% of voters think the terrorists have the advantage, while 20% say neither is winning.

In terms of national security, male voters trust McCain over Obama 58% to 36%. Female voters, who in most polls heavily favor the Democrat, rank them virtually dead even. McCain leads by a wide margin in all age and income groups, except among those 18-29 and those earning less than $20,000 a year who trust Obama more.

Even 21% of Democrats trust McCain more on national security, compared to seven percent (7%) of Republicans who prefer Obama. Unaffiliated voters favor McCain 54% to 35%.

And on the electoral college race (state by state):

The latest wave of state-by-state polling, market data and national trends have pushed the Rasmussen Reports’ Electoral College projections as close as our daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

The latest numbers from the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator show Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes and McCain ahead in states with 183 Electoral College votes. Previously, Obama had enjoyed a 210–165 advantage.

Currently, states with 135 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other, and three states with a total of 27 votes — Colorado, Nevada and Virginia — are pure toss-ups.

A state-by-state “balance of power” chart is available HERE.

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: