New Major Poll Has Republican Brown Leading Democrat Coakley By 4 Points

It seems like every single poll we’ve seen recently has Republican Scott Brown gaining and Democrat Martha Coakley receding.

I like the trend, and pray for it to continue through a cheat-proof victory.

It’s interesting.  It used to be that Democrats could campaign well, but failed at governing.  Now, after the last couple elections since 2008, it seems as if they can’t even manage to campaign well.

Poll shocker: Scott Brown surges ahead in Senate race
By Jessica Van Sack  |   Thursday, January 14, 2010  |  http://www.bostonherald.com

Riding a wave of opposition to Democratic health-care reform, GOP upstart Scott Brown is leading in the U.S. Senate race, raising the odds of a historic upset that would reverberate all the way to the White House, a new poll shows.

Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

“It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”

The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead. Unenrolled long-shot Joseph L. Kennedy, an information technology executive with no relation to the famous family, gets 3 percent of the vote. Only 1 percent of voters were undecided.

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided.

Given the 4.4-point margin of error, the poll shows Coakley could win the race, Paleologos said. But if Brown’s momentum holds, he is poised to succeed the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy – and to halt health-care reform, the issue the late senator dubbed “the cause of my life.”

Yet even in the bluest state, it appears Kennedy’s quest for universal health care has fallen out of favor, with 51 percent of voters saying they oppose the “national near-universal health-care package” and 61 percent saying they believe the government cannot afford to pay for it.

The poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday, surveyed 500 registered likely voters who knew the date of Tuesday’s election. It shows Brown leading all regions of the state except Suffolk County.

“Either Brown’s momentum accelerates and his lead widens, or this becomes a wake-up call for Coakley to become the ‘Comeback Kid’ this weekend,” Paleologos said.

And with 99 percent having made up their minds, voters may be hard to persuade.

The poll surveyed a carefully partitioned electorate meant to match voter turnout: 39 percent Democrat, 15 percent Republican and 45 percent unenrolled.

Brown wins among men and is remarkably competitive among women – trailing Coakley’s 50 percent with 45 percent.

While Brown has 91 percent of registered Republicans locked up, an astonishing 17 percent of Democrats report they’re jumping ship for Brown as well – likely a product of Coakley’s laser-focus on hard-core Dems, potentially at the exclusion of other Democrats whom she needed to win over, Paleologos said.

For Coakley, Brown’s surge may be as ominous as the fact that her campaign’s peril is not fully recognized, with 64 percent of voters still believing she’ll win – a perception that threatens to keep her supporters home.

Brown’s popularity is solid. He enjoys a 57 percent favorability rating compared to just 19 percent unfavorable. Coakley’s favorability is 49 percent; her unfavorability, 41 percent.

No longer does Brown suffer from a name-recognition problem, with 95 percent of voters having heard of him statewide.

7News Political Editor Andy Hiller said, “Voters obviously think Brown is running a better campaign than Coakley. For months, it has been Coakley’s race to lose, and now in the last days that’s exactly what she may be doing.”

The line of the article might be this: “For Coakley, Brown’s surge may be as ominous as the fact that her campaign’s peril is not fully recognized, with 64 percent of voters still believing she’ll win – a perception that threatens to keep her supporters home.”

It would be talionic justice if Democrats lose Massachusetts because of their same head-in-the-sand denial and dismissal of the fact that the American people have firmly turned against their agenda.

Again, I urge you to support Scott Brown.

Don’t be like the Democrats, and take a victory for granted (if nothing else, be aware that for Democrats, an election only begins after the last vote is counted and the “recounting” starts).

This is an election that, more than any other than the presidential election, affects every single American.  So Americans from all 50 states should exercise their right to support the candidate who will protect their rights not to have ObamaCare shoved down their throats.

The Democrat Party is the party that is determined to thwart the clearly-expressed will of the people.  They should be called the “unDemocratic Party” from now on.

You can volunteer to help Scott Brown end the Democrats dictatorial control of the American political process.  You make a political contribution.  You can even make vitally important phone calls for Scott Brown from your own home.

See my other articles on the Scott Brown/Martha Coakley Massachusetts Senate race:

Martha Coakley Uses Lobbyists And Thugs To Claw Her Way To The Massachusetts Senate

Massachusetts Senate Candidate Martha Coakley’s Vote ALREADY Bought And Paid For

Massachusetts Senate Race: Republican Scott Brown LEADING Democrat

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