Who Do You Trust More To Tell Us About Unemployment? Big Brother (8.3%) Or Gallup (9.1%)?

Which turned out to be more accurate?

We must win the war, and we can win it! Each man and each woman, the entire German people, must call forth their utmost in work, courage, and discipline.” — Nazi government, January 1945

Or:

I am writing this from cell 24. Outside a new Germany is being created. Many millions are rejoicing. Hitler is promising everyone precisely what they want. I think when they wake to their sobering senses, they will find they have been led by the nose and duped by lies.” — Jailed journalist Stephen Laurant, circa 1935

Sometimes it is vital to pick the right people or the right agencies to believe.

Right now the Obama government is telling us that the unemployment rate is 8.3 percent and about to drop even further after numerous positive developments.

That view is not shared by leading polling organization Gallup:

Gallup: Unemployment at 9.1%, But 19% Need Jobs
Thursday, 08 Mar 2012 02:19 PM
By Martin Gould

The unemployment rate shot up by half a percentage point in February, according to figures released by the polling organization Gallup on Thursday.

The jump from 8.6 percent in January to 9.1 percent last month is the largest month-by-month increase in more than a year, Gallup said. It is the highest rate since August.

Gallup’s figures differ from the official government unemployment rate because they do not adjust the figure for seasonal variations or include anyone under 18. The survey suggests that the official figures will also show an increase from January’s 8.3 percent when they are released on Friday, said Gallup’s chief economist Dennis Jacobe.

“If the government’s unadjusted unemployment rate increases to the degree that Gallup’s has from mid-month to mid-month, then the government’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate could show an even larger increase,” Jacobe said.

He predicted the government figure for February would stand at either 8.5 or 8.6 percent.

Gallup’s figure reveals the largest single month increase since December 2010 when it went up from 8.8 percent to 9.6 percent. According to the organization, the underemployment rate – which includes part-time workers who want to be in full-time employment, rose from 18.7 percent to 19.1 percent in February, the highest since last May.

“Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup’s unemployment and underemployment measures show a substantial deterioration since mid-January,” added Jacobe. “In this context, the increase in unemployment as measured by Gallup may, at least partly, reflect growth in the workforce, as more Americans who had given up looking for work become slightly more optimistic and start looking for work again.

“So while there may be positive signs, the reality Gallup finds is that more Americans are looking for work now than were doing so just six weeks ago.
Official Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment figures have shown the rate go down from 9 percent since September.

And even Gallup is far more optimistic than the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office as stated in its annual report:

The [CBO] office says that will leave the unemployment rate at 8.9 percent at the end of this year, well above current the current rate of 8.5 percent, meaning the jobless rate would be increasing at election time.

[…]

And in 2013, CBO estimates unemployment will be even higher — at 9.2 percent.

As to the question as to whether Obama has created more jobs or destroyed jobs, this conversation was telling during official testimony with CBO director Douglas Elmendorf:

That prompted this exchange between Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Calif., and the CBO director. “Let me ask you, are there more people working today or fewer people working today than at the — on inauguration day of 2009?” McClintock asked.

“I believe the answer to that,” said Elmendorf, “is there are fewer people, congressman.”

Who are you going to believe?

There is an intentionally false picture being presented by somebody (see also here and here).  That much is abundantly clear.

In the case of Nazi Germany, had the German people believed the likes of Stephen Laurant, imagine how much suffering they could have spared themselves and the rest of the world.  But they were fools who chose to believe the wrong people.

Right now, Barack Obama is trying to get himself re-elected so there will be absolutely no reason for him to restrain himself in the pursuit of policies that will lead America to economic ruin.

Like the German people prior to World War II, if the American people foolishly choose to believe the wrong sources, we won’t get a do-over; they will rightly receive ruin.  Because we are responsible for our choices in this world.

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3 Responses to “Who Do You Trust More To Tell Us About Unemployment? Big Brother (8.3%) Or Gallup (9.1%)?”

  1. Uncle Andy Says:

    Obama’s lying administration will say and do anything to make the jobs picture more rosy than reality would obviously indicate.

  2. Jon Says:

    “And in 2013, CBO estimates unemployment will be even higher — at 9.2 percent.”

    This is a lie. Try to learn the difference between a benchmark and a prediction. Either you know the difference and you are lying to your readers, or you are just plain ignorant.

  3. Michael Eden Says:

    “And in 2013, CBO estimates unemployment will be even higher — at 9.2 percent.”

    This is a lie. Try to learn the difference between a benchmark and a prediction. Either you know the difference and you are lying to your readers, or you are just plain ignorant.

    Jon,

    You are a shockingly stupid liberal ideologue dumbass, and it is a stupidity that transcends the limits of ordinary human stupidity – which is to say there are DEMONS in you.

    I literally provided a direct QUOTE:

    And in 2013, CBO estimates unemployment will be even higher — at 9.2 percent.”

    That quote appears in it’s full context here. It is simply a FACT that I reported the figure completely acurately, just as it is simply a FACT that you are a naked ideologue who is as full of equivocations as you are full of cockroach feces.

    Here is another source for the CBO figures.

    From the very first pages of the CBO report:

    CBO unemployment prediction

    The chart disappears off the screen to the right, but the shaded half on the right is the CBO’s projection/prediction/estimate for unemployment.

    In case anyone has a hard time reading the chart, we went to 10.2% unemployment; so yes, CBO projects 9.2% unemployment for 2013. Just as I accurately reported.

    You are a truly dishonest species of vermin, Jon.

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