First of all, there’s the Gallup poll of likely voters (the most accurate measure of actual voter turnout):
Mitt Romney has opened up a 7-point lead. And if that number is even close to correct, this race is OVER.
Only a few days ago, the blabbing heads were talking about Romney winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college. But now the Romney surge is showing up there, too in the RCP average:
Both developments are enough to individually put Chris Matthews into a straitjacket and then into a rubber room. Not that he didn’t belong there already.
But just to make sure he enters his rubber room with a mouth frothing with rabis, too, another developement is that Obama is may be losing by four points in Pennsylvania.
The Washington Times has an interesting write-up about all of these recent developments:
EDITORIAL: Romney’s electoral insurgency
Republicans are picking off states while Democrats scramble
By THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Thursday, October 18, 2012A political tectonic shift is under way. Heading into the final weeks of the presidential campaign, the electoral map is changing decisively. Areas previously thought safe for Barack Obama are becoming competitive, and tossup states are turning into safe havens for Mitt Romney. A month ago, commentators were claiming the roads to victory were closing for the Romney campaign. Now it’s the Obama camp hunkering down to make a last stand around a few critical states.
On Thursday, the RealClearPolitics electoral-vote map gave Mr. Romney the lead for the first time. President Obama had an 88-vote advantage two weeks ago, but now the challenger leads by five. This 93-vote swing took place chiefly because four states on the Great Lakes — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin — changed from “leaning Obama” to tossups. This combined 64-vote loss significantly broadened the territory the Obama team needs to contest.
Last week, Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos took criticism for saying Mr. Romney had a lock on Florida, Virginia and North Carolina, worth a collective 57 electoral votes. Today, that is orthodoxy. The New York Times‘ Nate Silver, who still points to an Obama win, has Florida, Virginia and North Carolina in the Romney column as well as Colorado’s nine electoral votes, which many analysts see as beyond Mr. Obama’s reach.
Adding up these states puts Mr. Romney’s base at 257 electoral votes, a mere 13 from victory. This was considered impossible a few weeks ago. From that substantial position, the Republican could win by taking Ohio (18 electoral votes), Michigan (16) or Pennsylvania (20). Even if he lost all three of these large states, he still would end up on top by taking Wisconsin (10) and one other small swing state from among New Hampshire (4), Iowa (6) and Nevada (6).
This is the background to Major Garrett’s National Journal report on Wednesday that Obama operatives have been reduced to pursuing a four-state strategy. They are entrenching in Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada in hopes of blocking the Romney endgame and eking out a victory. Whether this strategic-hamlet approach can prevail against the Romney insurgency remains to be seen, but it doesn’t account for the fluid nature of the electoral battle space.
It’s true no Republican has won the White House without the Buckeye State, but history isn’t destiny. In the 10 elections between 1952 and 1988, California went for Democrats only in 1964. If Mr. Obama focuses resources to hold Ohio but loses Pennsylvania or Michigan, he won’t be re-elected.
Mr. Romney’s options for victory are increasing while Mr. Obama’s dwindle. As the Obama campaign hunkers down into its final electoral redoubts, it’s worth recalling Gen. George S. Patton’s dictum that “fixed fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man.” The tighter Mr. Obama tries to grip these four states, the more likely the election will slip through his fingers.
Obama and his mob of Chicago communists are going to be throwing more crap than monkeys in a dirty cage between now and the election.
Tags: election, electoral college, Gallup, poll, RCP average
Start Thinking Right 
October 21, 2012 at 9:27 pm
GOD help us, God deliver us from this horrible, evil, wicked, sinful govt of tyranny
October 21, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Mad Jewess,
I’ve been praying every night that God will give America just one more chance. As the first debate was going, I set the recorder and left for my walk. I prayed and prayed. I didn’t know what to pray for Obama (I don’t ask God to hurt people), and it occurred to me to pray that the Lord would EXPOSE Obama. And when I came home and turned on the television, Marco Rubio was on Sean Hannity and the very words that came out of his mouth immediately as I turned on the TV was “The president was exposed tonight…”
God DOES hear prayer!
October 22, 2012 at 2:20 am
Yes, he certainly did hear you!
For a LONG time, I wanted God to just destroy us. After all, look what is in the WH.
Lately, though, I have felt that maybe God relented and may grant us 4 yrs to repent as a nation? Dont know, I could be wrong. We shall see.
I really am tired. Daniel 7 talks about Gods people that love him (you, me, etc) will be worn out. I am worn from this fight against evil. Its not just politics, anymore, we are fighting some wicked forces.
So, you are not alone, although so many are spiritually sleeping.
GODSPEED, Mike.
October 22, 2012 at 8:08 pm
I think about the great prophets of the Old (First) Testament. They loved their nation and they loved their people. And I have no doubt they pleaded with their fellow Jews to repent before it was too late and pleaded with God to be merciful.
But they presented the message God had given them – and that message was that judgment was coming. And of course we know in hindsight that it CAME.
Ultimately, as merciful as God is, He is JUST. And if He does not judge evil He CAN’T be merciful. Because mercy perishes when evil is allowed to triumh.
If we re-elect Obama, we deserve whatever we get. That’s the bottom line. You mentioned Daniel; the Antichrist is coming; he’s right around the corner. He will be a big-government global tyrant (i.e., the ULTIMATE liberal). And if we re-elect Obama we will Antichrist years sooner and the human race will suffer as it has never suffered in all of history.
I know what you mean about being worn-out. Regardless of what happens, I won’t be doing politics every dang day like I am now. If Obama is president, well, I tried my best to warn people, but they were determined to be fools and there’s no point wasting time with fools. If Romney wins and turns out to be the moderate RINO he’s been most of his life, well, I don’t want to carry his water for him and trying to justify anything other than a clear conservative course. Instead, I’ll be talking about the Bible, religion, culture and morality (the areas I was actually trained in).
May God’s blessings surround you as well, Mad Jewess.