Is A Giant Storm About To Hit America That ISN’T Hurricane Sandy? Romney Poised To Wash Right Over Obama.

Obviously, I don’t know what’s going to happen in eight days.  But I feel a heck of a lot better for the same reasons that a lot of Democrats are feeling a heck of a lot worse:

Gathering Storm: Time for Dems to Hit Panic Button
by Mike Flynn 28 Oct 2012, 4:08 PM PDT

A massive and historic storm is barreling towards the beltway this weekend. The entire DC-NYC axis, headquarters of the left media complex, will suffer the effects of three storm-fronts, converging at the same time. Evacuations may be ordered, but it is likely too late. No, I’m not talking about Hurricane Sandy. The storm I mean is the growing realization that Obama is on the cusp of losing the election. But, with just a little over a week to go, it may be too late to hit the panic button.

Democrats and the media have labored under several false assumptions the entire campaign. They wove these into a narrative that Obama’s reelection was inevitable. It may have helped them sleep at night, but it caused them to miss the teutonic plates shifting beneath the election. This weekend three storm-fronts started converging that will sweep their assumptions away. Let’s look at each in turn.

The first storm-front is the expanding campaign battleground. I’ve long noted that which states become competitive towards the end of the race can tell you a lot about the state of the campaign. In 2008, when “red” states like Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina and Montana suddenly became competitive, it was a clear sign that Obama had a huge momentum advantage. This year, however, it is “blue” states becoming competitive. In the final week, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota are emerging as new battleground states. If Romney’s position is improving in states like these, its a good sign that he slated to win states like Florida, Colorado, Virginia and Ohio.

Even if Obama still has the edge in these newly competitive states, the fact that the campaign will have to spend resources to shore them up says a lot about the campaign’s weak position.

The second storm-front is the increased convergence of the polls in the direction of Romney. Most national tracking polls show Romney with a lead, with two, Rasmussen and Gallup, showing him over the important 50% threshold. For a week or so, Democrats consoled themselves that Obama led in state-level polling. Most of those polls were built on samples that assumed Democrats would match or exceed the turnout advantage they enjoyed in 2008. This was always something of a fantasy, but now even this assumption can’t prop up Obama. Virtually every state poll over the last week has shown consistent movement towards Romney. Moreover, virtually every state poll shows Obama stuck below the 50% level of support.

For a variety of reasons, it is very difficult for an incumbent to get back above 50% once they have fallen below it for a considerable period of time. North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Virginia are likely now out of reach for Obama. Ohio is definitely moving towards Romney.

Romney’s poll movement isn’t just on the overall head-to-head match up, though. In almost every poll he now has a substantial lead on who would better handle the economy. He has a significant lead on who can best tackle federal spending and the deficit. He is also starting to lead on the softer questions like “understands my problems”, is a “strong leader” and “can get things done. This suggests a major preference cascade toward the challenger.

Most important, though, is the clear lead Romney has with Independents. In 2008, Obama won independents by 8 points. This year, Romney leads among Independents in virtually every national or state poll, often by double-digits. There is simply no path for Obama to win reelection if he loses Independents by that kind of margin.

The third, most significant storm-front descending on Democrats is the change in the electorate. In 2008, the Democrats rode an historic wave from a near perfect political storm to their largest turnout advantage in decades. In the final vote, Democrats edged Republicans by 7 points, making the election D+7. New research from Rasmussen and Gallup, however, show that, not only is that advantage gone, but Republicans now have the edge. Both surveys report, for the first time in modern history, that more likely voters identify as Republicans than Democrats. Considering that every poll has found GOP voters more enthusiastic about voting then Democrats, this edge may be decisive. Keep in mind that every poll is built on the assumption that Democrats will have a turnout edge next week. If they don’t have the edge or if the GOP has an advantage? Well, this could be a blowout. And, a lot of down-ballot Dems will be swept under as well.

When the history of Obama’s failed reelection campaign is written, it will be noted that Obama’s campaign made a critical strategic blunder. Their plan was to disqualify Romney at the outset, rather than other up a compelling agenda for a second term. They essentially decided to run a challenger’s race, dragging down the opponent in a wave of negative ads. When Romney took the stage at the first debate in Denver, he didn’t just defeat Obama, he defeated Obama’s entire campaign plan. The Romney on the stage didn’t match the caricature painted by Obama and the media. It gave him an opening which he seized.

Obama responded by ratcheting up negative attacks and getting engulfed in small-bore issues issues relevant to mere slivers of the voting base. Big Bird. Binders. Bayonets. In a time of economic uncertainty and looming fiscal crisis, the issues Obama focused on were ridiculous. They were patently unserious. But, these are serious times.

So, going into the final week, Romney looks like a President on the road to reelection, while Obama looks like a challenger who knows he’s about to lose. While the “Gang of 500” media mavens hunker down for Hurricane Sandy, left with their own thoughts after the inevitable power outages, and away from cocooning lefty reassurances from people like Nate Silver, they will have this realization too. Campaign 2012 is just about over. And so, too, is Obama.

You rampage, you giant, pissed-off symbol of the Republican Party.

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7 Responses to “Is A Giant Storm About To Hit America That ISN’T Hurricane Sandy? Romney Poised To Wash Right Over Obama.”

  1. Dog Walker Says:

    I hope you are right. However I fear that a close race goes to the cheater.

  2. Dog Walker Says:

  3. Michael Eden Says:

    Dog Walker,

    At this point, this election is in the bag for Romney. For isntance, while a lot of the polls are assuming a +8 Democrat turnout, Gallup just released a large poll that shows that Republicans actually have a +1 advantage over Democrats right now. Add to that the fact that Romney has an 18 point advantage among independents, and there is only ONE way he could possibly lose.

    And you cited it: cheating.

    I too am fearful that the Cheater-in-Chief will do what he does best: be dishonest.

  4. FMC Says:

    I, too, fear cheating. One can never underestimate the depth of depravity that liberal democrats can sink to. These snake-pit devils are hell bent on fullfilling there diabolical plan to bring down America and replace it with surfdom. I am nervous, but provided a fair election, I am also confident that Romney will win and kick this scum bag out ot the white house..

    This also reminds me. The closer we get to the election, the closer we get to the end of this blog as far as politics are concerned. This is kinda sad, but I am looking forward to the End Times Blog.

  5. Michael Eden Says:

    FMC,

    Well, it’s interesting to me how interreled five things are: economics, politics, global worldviews in open conflict, wars and rumors of wars and Bible prophecy truly are.

    “The beast” will be the ultimate big government nanny state tryant. He will so “help” liberal welfare whiners that be able to completely monitor them and as a result he will completely own them. All those government-as-god leaders whom we see around us now are doing nothing more than exploit the political system in order to ultimately take over the political system in the ultimate Antichrist to soon come.

    Revelation Six describes the four horsemen of the Apocylypse: the political Antichrist; war; economic collapse and mass death.

    I believe that war, economic collapse and mass death will all circle around Antichrist. In other words, we will go from economic collapse, war and mass death to Antichrist and then from Antichrist to economic collapse, war and mass death. It will be from a world crisis in which the Antichrist emerges and seems to have the solution for everything that the beast will emerge. He will be the ultimate politician. For 3 1/2 years, everything the beast touches will turn to gold. He will take over the nanny state and become a Führer whom all the people adore. Politics will matter mightily in the last days.

    And they matter mightily TODAY as we set the final pieces in place for a struggle that God warned us about 2,000 years ago. We see how politics affects the economy – AND how the economy can influence the political vote. As and I believe that we’re going to soon be seeing an economic collapse that will set the upcoming poltiical future as described primarily in Revelation and Daniel.

    I think the theologian who wants to understand Bible prophecy NEEDS to have a very good understanding of political forces and economic causes and effects. Because if you understand the Bible but NOT politics and economics, you’re simply unable to apply the Bible to the real world as it is actually happening and actually will SOON be happening.

    So I won’t be “ending” this blog as far as politics are concerned; I’ll simply be more intent on applying those political events as they unfold to the events that the Bible described and told us would happen.

    As such I’ll STILL be discussing politics, but just in the context of last days prophecy.

  6. Memoine Says:

    “At this point, this election is in the bag for Romney,”

    You are delusional.

  7. Michael Eden Says:

    Maybe so. Maybe not. We’ll see soon, won’t we?

    Hey, btw, way to go showing the world that if you are a liberal you are a) a complete jerk whose soul swims in personal attacks and b) someone to whom facts and arguments are irrelevant. Because, you know, otherwise rather than personally attacking me you would have interacted with all those fact-things I presented that you as a liberal couldn’t care less about.

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