Posts Tagged ‘1993’

Democrats Sinking Down To Crazy Town In Polls

November 12, 2009

From Real Clear Politics:

November 11, 2009

Why Things Don’t Look Good For Dems In The Midterms

Independent political observers and Democrats themselves have been saying for months that 2010 is shaping up as a bad year for Democratic candidates, and the latest Gallup generic congressional ballot test only reinforces the point. Not only do Republicans lead 48 percent to 44 percent, but independents now favor the GOP by 52 percent to 30 percent.

Although generic Republican candidates hold just a 4-point lead, the GOP’s perpetual turnout advantage means their lead would likely be higher if the midterm elections were today. Even a single-digit lead for Democrats in Gallup’s testing often only means the two parties will be competitive, as more registered voters identify with the Democratic Party but more Republicans go to the polls on Election Day.

In the final Gallup survey before the 1998 midterms, Republicans trailed by 9 points but still went on to win a small majority of House seats. In the 2002 midterms, Republicans were down 5 points just before the election but again kept a slim majority in the House.

A year before the 2006 midterm elections –when Democrats regained control of both houses of Congress — generic congressional ballot testing forecast the shifting mood of the country. An August 2005 Gallup survey found Democrats leading by 12 points — one of the widest margins between the parties Gallup had found since the GOP took back Congress in 1994.

That survey was far from the only one to show a shifting mood. This is the first Gallup survey to show Republicans leading this cycle, and while a year is a long time in politics, the poll falls in line with other signs pointing in the GOP’s direction.

“It’s better to look at a series of these polls than one of them, but the fact is Republicans haven’t led the generic ballot since the stone ages,” said David Wasserman, who analyzes House races for the Cook Political Report. “Any sort of deficit is dangerous for Democrats because their support is more heavily concentrated within a few base districts.”

The last time Republicans led was September 2008, just after the Republican National Convention. The poll was an outlier, as no other generic ballot test by any other polling firm had shown Republicans leading in at least four years. None did soon after, either, and Democrats went on expand their majority to more than 75 seats in the House.

Further significance in the poll is the shift among independent voters. The 22-point advantage for Republicans is a far cry from July, when the two parties were statistically tied. The migration of independents toward the GOP mirrors what occurred in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections last week, when a Republican knocked off the incumbent governor in the Garden State and the GOP nominee won by nearly 20 points in the Old Dominion.

The independent swing shows in the new Pew Research survey also released today. It found incumbents — most of which are Democrats these days — in a perilous place, with just 52 percent saying they want their representative re-elected and only 34 percent say most representatives should be re-elected.

“Both measures are among the most negative in two decades of Pew Research surveys,” Pew reports. “Other low points were during the 1994 and 2006 election cycles, when the party in power suffered large losses in midterm elections.”

The latest Gallup survey was conducted Nov. 5-8 of 894 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The Pew poll was taken Oct. 28-Nov. 8 of 1,644 registered voters.

First of all, let’s look at how the Democrats have “progressed” in a single picture from Gallup:

You’ve got a 10 point swing in the four months that Democrats have fixated on Obamacare, with Democrats losing 6 points, and Republicans gaining 4 points.

And when you see independents now trending Republican over Democrat by more than 20 points, all you can say is WOW.

Obama currently has an approval of -9 (meaning that 9% more voters strongly disapprove of him than strongly approve.  And only 47% of voters at least somewhat approve of him.  That according to the best pollster, Rasmussen, which nailed the results of the 2008 election.

Humorist Dennis Miller, commenting following the disastrous-for-Democrats 2009 off year-election, said that Obama has “smaller coattails than a naked midget.”  If Democrats are counting on Obama to win them re-election, they’d better think some more.

Just keep drinking that Kool-aid, Democrats.  And if it tastes like it has cyanide in it, don’t trouble yourselves.

The current Democrat fairy tale is that the reason Democrats took such a historic pounding in 1994 was because Democrats had failed to pass their massive government takeover of health care.  But the fact is that they got driven out of office because they’d TRIED to pass such an evil monstrosity, and the public didn’t want any more of their poison.

And now here we are again.  And the 2009 off-year elections actually shows Republicans having even greater success than they did at the 1993 off-year elections, which preceded and anticipated the massive rejection of Democrats in 1994.

The funny thing is that during the last two elections from 2006 and 2008, it was Republicans ignoring or explaining away the polls.  Now it’s Democrats.

Go ahead and be the proverbial ostrich, Democrats – or worse yet be this guy

Democrats_Head-up-ass

– but the way things are going, you won’t like the “change” you’ll be confronted with when you finally pull your heads out.

 

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Civil War Within GOP? Democrats Ignore Log In Their Own Eye

November 4, 2009

I occasionally turned on CNN last night during the elections.  They couldn’t go three consecutive minutes without somebody mentioning the “civil war” within the Republican Party.

Particularly as it became more apparent that the Democrat in the NY-23 race was poised to win the district – as the ONLY Democrat victory in an otherwise complete smackdown by the GOP – pundits speculated on the “fracturing” in the Republican Party.

And, of course, we should listen to these people.  After all, they correctly predicted that the Republican Party was clearly dead after the 2008 elections.  I mean, they obviously know what they’re talking about, right?

A divided party: Progressives threaten Democratic lawmakers
By: Byron York
Chief Political Correspondent
11/03/09 2:39 PM EST

MoveOn.org is sending out emails today seeking more contributions for its campaign to defeat any Democratic senator who does not fully  support Obamacare. Yesterday the left-wing activist group asked members to contribute “to a primary challenge against any Democratic senator who helps Republicans block an up-or-down vote on health care reform.” Today, MoveOn reports that it has received $2 million in pledges in less than 24 hours. “It’s a clear sign of how angry progressives would be at any Democrat who helps filibuster reform,” MoveOn executive director Justin Ruben writes in the new email.

“The larger the war chest we can offer a potential challenger, the stronger the signal we’ll send to conservative Democrats,” Ruben continues. “So we’re setting a huge new goal: $3 million in total pledges by the end of the week. That’s plenty to launch a serious primary challenge.”

MoveOn is already planning radio ads targeting Louisiana Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and Arkansas Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln over the health care issue.

MoveOn’s new campaign comes amid much discussion in the political world of divisions among Republicans, with many analysts reading the presence of third-party candidates in New York’s 23rd District and in New Jersey, and coming primary battles in Florida and elsewhere, as proof of deep, and perhaps disastrous, divisions inside the GOP. One publication recently dubbed it a “nightmare scenario” for Republicans. But MoveOn’s new threat of primary attacks on Democratic lawmakers suggests that the story might be a bit one-sided. Democrats who stray from progressive orthodoxy might be in for big trouble — and the divisions inside the Democratic party might be just as big a deal as the problems inside the GOP.

And other names, such as Joe Lieberman’s, need to be added to the list.  Democrats publicly threatened to strip him of his chairmanship if he blocked the liberal agenda.

NY-23 wasn’t so much a civil war within the GOP as much as it was an example of the stupidity of the 11 county Republican apparatchiks who seemingly chose Scozzafava’s name out of a hat, rather than choosing a candidate who in any way reflected the makeup of the party within the district.  And I personally believe that Hoffman’s defeat will cause both the Republican Party and the conservative movement in general to learn some lessons.

Lessons that the morning after clearly reveal that Democrats will not learn.

Barack Obama won Virginia by six points in 2008.  Virginia hadn’t elected a Republican for governor in 12 years.  And both Virginia Senators are Democrats.  It wasn’t a “purple state”; it was a state that was deeply into the process of becoming a BLUE state.  And yet the Republican candidate walked away with the governorship by an 18 point spread.

In New Jersey, it was even worse.  Obama won that state by 16 points.  New Jersey has been a reliably Democrat state for decades.  Republican Christie’s cheat-proof 5-point win is like a political earthquake.

To make the defeat even more alarming for Democrats, the Republican in Virginia won independent voters by a 66-30 margin, and the Republican in New Jersey won them by a 60-30 margin.  Independents are becoming more conservative, not more liberal.

Let’s see.  When was the last time anything like this happened?  Oh, yeah – 1993 – the year before the worst political defeat for either party in history.

Republicans get paranoid about the prospect of an Orwellian 1984 scenario occurring as big government liberals usurp more and more power away from the people and into the government.  If they are halfway smart, Democrats will start getting paranoid about the 1993 scenario happening again.

Update, November 10, 2009:

Kos and Effect

Daily Kos blog founder Markos Moulitsas is telling his fellow liberals to ditch the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee because the money could be going to moderate Democrats who voted against the House health care bill.

Moulitsas writes: “Skip any donations to the DCCC. Their first priority is incumbent retention, and they’re (necessarily) issue agnostic. They’ll be dumping millions into defending these seats. Instead, give to those elected officials who best reflect your values.”

The Politico calls it “a dangerous little challenge to the Democratic establishment… the GOP is loving the Kos post.”

DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen tells Fox News, “It would be a mistake to take any measures that would jeopardize a large and vibrant Democratic majority.”

And, yeah, I’m sure the GOP IS loving the Kool-aid Kos post.  I know it brings laughter and merriment to my heart.

Just another little tidbit to lay to rest the mainstream media-created propaganda that the Republican Party is the one on the verge of meltdown.