Posts Tagged ‘7.6%’

Unemployment 7.6% When Obama Took Office. Now 9.6% Are You Better Off Under Democrats?

October 9, 2010

Back in January, while Obama was flush in his promises of “hope and change,” unemployment was at 7.6% as George Bush was moving out.

That was high, granted.  Particularly for a president whose average unemployment rate during his eight-year term in office was 5.2%.

Unemployment was high enough that Obama was successful in turning fearmongering into an art form.  As he followed his chief of staff’s advice to “Never let a serious crisis go to waste.”  Obama said that if we didn’t vote for his unparalleled in all of human history “stimulus” spending, we would suffer.  But if we passed his stimulus, on the other hand, his administration “predicted that the passage of a large economic-aid package would boost the economy and keep the unemployment rate below 8%.”  Obama called it “the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.”

Virtually every single Republican voted against the “stimulus,” predicting it would fail and make bad turn to worse.  Obama demonized them as “the party of no” and demagogued them as “blocking progress.”

The actual figure that Obama’s “stimulus” will cost America’s future – according to the CBO – is $3.27 TRILLION.

Let me ask you: are you better off than you were the day that Obama took the oath of office and put his feet up in the Oval Office?  Are you better off after Democrats took total control of both the House and the Senate?  Have you experienced “recovery,” or has it been a “wreckovery“?

Obama’s stimulus seems to be a pretty good deal – if you are a dead person or an incarcerated felon.

How high is unemployment under Obama?

The “official” government-reported rate remained unchanged this month at 9.6% in spite of the loss of 95,000 jobs.  But sadly the government under Barack Obama has already proven that he is more than capable of never-before-seen shenanigans.

The actual unemployment rate is probably even more frightening – and very likely to get worse.

Gallup – using the raw “seasonally unadjusted” numbers – calculates that the unemployment rate is now back into double-digit territory at 10.1%.

October 7, 2010
Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment at 10.1% in September
Underemployment, at 18.8%, is up from 18.6% at the end of August

by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist

PRINCETON, NJ — Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 10.1% in September – up sharply from 9.3% in August and 8.9% in July. Much of this increase came during the second half of the month — the unemployment rate was 9.4% in mid-September — and therefore is unlikely to be picked up in the government’s unemployment report on Friday.

Certain groups continue to fare worse than the national average. For example, 15.8% of Americans aged 18 to 29 and 13.9% of those with no college education were unemployed in September.

The increase in the unemployment rate component of Gallup’s underemployment measure is partially offset by fewer part-time workers, 8.7%, now wanting full-time work, down from 9.3% in August and 9.5% at the end of July.

As a result, underemployment shows a more modest increase to 18.8% in September from 18.6% in August, though it is up from 18.4% in July. Underemployment peaked at 20.4% in April and has yet to fall below 18.3% this year.

Friday’s Unemployment Rate Report Likely to Understate

The government’s final unemployment report before the midterm elections is based on job market conditions around mid-September. Gallup’s modeling of the unemployment rate is consistent with Tuesday’s ADP report of a decline of 39,000 private-sector jobs, and indicates that the government’s national unemployment rate in September will be in the 9.6% to 9.8% range. This is based on Gallup’s mid-September measurements and the continuing decline Gallup is seeing in the U.S. workforce during 2010.

However, Gallup’s monitoring of job market conditions suggests that there was a sharp increase in the unemployment rate during the last couple of weeks of September. It could be that the anticipated slowdown of the overall economy has potential employers even more cautious about hiring. Some of the increase could also be seasonal or temporary.

Further, Gallup’s underemployment measure suggests that the percentage of workers employed part time but looking for full-time work is declining as the unemployment rate increases. To some degree, this may reflect a reduced company demand for new part-time employees. For example, employers may be converting some existing part-time workers to full time when they are needed as replacements, but may not in turn be hiring replacement part-time workers. Another explanation may relate to the shrinkage of the workforce, as some employees who have taken part-time work in hopes of getting full-time jobs get discouraged and drop out of the workforce completely — going back to school to enhance their education, for example, instead of doing part-time work. It is even possible that some workers may find unemployment insurance a better alternative than part-time work with little prospect of going full time.

Regardless, the sharp increase in the unemployment rate during late September does not bode well for the economy during the fourth quarter, or for holiday sales. In this regard, it is essential that the Federal Reserve and other policymakers not be misled by Friday’s jobs numbers. The jobs picture could be deteriorating more rapidly than the government’s job release suggests.

Conservative economist John Lott boldly predicted when the stimulus was past that it would INCREASE unemployment.  Looking at today’s unemployment rate, who was proven right, and who has been proven completely wrong?  That same John Lott also surveyed other countries and demonstrated that those nations which did NOT engage in a massive stimulus like we did have universally fared better than countries that followed Obama.  And other economists have demonstrated that incredibly costly and redistributionist stimulus policies have NEVER stimulated economies.

Obama’s stimulus has been a complete disaster.  His administration assured us that it would create millions of “shovel-ready jobs.”  But the AP discovered that nothing of the sort had happened:

Even within the construction industry, which stood to benefit most from transportation money, the AP’s analysis found there was nearly no connection between stimulus money and the number of construction workers hired or fired since Congress passed the recovery program. The effect was so small, one economist compared it to trying to move the Empire State Building by pushing against it.”

And, of course, it hasn’t just been Obama’s and the Democrats’ stimulus that entirely failed.  Democrat energy policies have resulted in nearly a million jobs just vanishing – possibly forever.

If Gallup’s data is correct, we will likely be seeing another wave of unemployment soon.  The numbers aren’t getting better; they’re getting worse.  We have now experienced unemployment above 9.5% for fourteen consecutive months.  And just to state the obvious, every single one of those months have been on Obama’s watch.

While Obama was on vacation late last August, I compiled some of the disasters that were gripping the US as Obama was gripping a golf club:

Since then, we’ve seen other records, such as “Highest poverty rate in fifty years,” and “Record number of Americans now on food stamps.”  We’ve got bad news measurements such as “Dollar tumbles to 15-year low” and “printing money like mad to ward off deflation.”

Obama spent half his first term passing his ObamaCare boondoggle.  Now Democrats are running against it.  Not one Democrat is campaigning on having passed health care or the stimulus.  Because both are a cause for shame, not pride.

And even liberal labor unions are now pleading for waivers so they don’t go bankrupt trying to live under ObamaCare.

For that matter, even Harry Reid’s OWN SON – who is running for governor as a Democrat – says that his father’s ObamaCare plan will hurt Nevada.

ObamaCare will be a $6.25 TRILLION tax on Americans and on the US economy unless the Republican Party receives enough votes to repeal it.

Economists now realize that FDR’s policies actually prolonged the Great Depression by a whopping seven years.  And that is precisely what the policies of Barack Obama and the Democrats have done – prolong the suffering of Americans.

The last time Republicans actually ran the government in November 2006, unemployment was only 4.5%.  Democrats used the Iraq War and Katrina to demonize Republicans.  And those Democrats have done so well with the government ever since.

The last federal budget passed by Republicans – the FY2007 budget – had a deficit of $161 billion.  The very next year, under Democrat control, the FY2008 budget had a deficit nearly three times higher – $459 billion.  And now Democrats aren’t even bothering to pass budgets, and our annual deficit is estimated at over $1.3 trillion.

These are the dark days that Obama is warning Americans of returning to: Low unemployment and low (certainly by comparison!!!) spending.

Are you better off after 2 years of Obama, and after four years of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid?

Articulate Incompetent Obama Leads Nation To Great Depression Unemployment Levels

August 7, 2010

Robert Blagojevich – the brother of Democrat Governor Blagojevich – labeled Jesse Jackson Jr. as an “articulate incompetent” (actually a “f-ing articulate incompetent”).  That label couldn’t suit Barry Hussein better.

Barack Obama is a complete failure.  He’s an utter disgrace.  But he’s an articulate failure and utter disgrace.  Which means he’s always smooth-talking, always using disingenuous and dishonest rhetoric to conceal or camouflage his failure.

As an example, Obama is out on the stump saying:

“And I do want to point out, when you get in your car, when you go forward, what do you do? You put it in ‘D.’ When you want to go back, what do you do? (Laughter.) You put it in ‘R.’  We won’t  want to go into reverse back in the ditch. We want to go forwards. We got to put it in ‘D.’ (Applause.) Can’t have the keys back.” (Laughter.)

That’s quite rhetorically clever.  It’s so articulate.  It’s also substantially utterly meaningless.

Putting facts to the rhetoric doesn’t look so good for Obama.  George Bush “handed Obama the keys” with unemployment two full points lower and with the deficit trillions of dollars lower.  Would I rather have Obama’s 9.5% unemployment – which as bad as it is is artificially low because of all the people who’ve dropped out of the job market, and which is now forecasted to up to 10% and remain there next year – or would I rather put the car in ‘R’ and go back to Bush’s worst unemployment rate of 7.6%?

We’re going to have a double dip recession – and which president is responsible for that second giant scoop of pain which will occur ENTIRELY on Obama’s watch?  Goldman analyst Jan Hatzius and his team just lowered their GDP forecast for 2011 from 2.5% to a dismally pathetic 1.9%, increased their unemployment forecast from 9.8% to 10.0%, boosted their inflation expectation from 0.4% to 1.0%, and said that the rather frightening Fed scenario known as “QE lite” is now on the table.

Specifically, the Goldman analysis says:

“As a result of this downgrade, we now expect the jobless rate to rise to 10% by early 2011 and remain there for the rest of the year.”

Does that make you want to put the car in ‘D,’ dumbass (which is another thing that ‘D’ stands for, for what it’s worth)?  We can see the cliff, but it’s full speed ahead with the turbochargers blazing.

In this case, “forward” leads to screaming-in-pain hell.

Obama says that Republicans don’t have “a single, solitary new idea” to help the American people recover from the economic recession.  Which takes a lot of chutzpah, given that Obama’s “new ideas” date back to 1848 and Karl Friggin Marx.  And the very newest “new ideas” of all date back to the colossal failure otherwise known as Jimmy Carter.  It’s not enough to say that Obama is throwing stones in a glass house; he’s using a machine gun to blast out every pane in the building.

Obama is quite “articulate” at fearmongering, race-baiting, slandering, demagoguing and demonizing his opponents.

But that kind of crap is all Obama’s got.  He’s incompetent at everything else.  As a matter of simple routine, we receive massively conflicting and contradictory messages from this White House.  On Wall Street.  On Afghanistan.  On health care.  On Iran.  On Everything.  Other than that, the first president of “God damn America!” is an utter disgrace.

So let’s look past the Obama rhetoric and look at the hard facts.

Losing is the New Winning

By: Larry Walker, Jr.

According to today’s Employment Status Report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveals that as of July 31, 2010 there were 857,000 fewer persons employed than there were in July of 2009. Yet from Barack’s glass bubble, it sounded like all is well. Sure, his chief economist, Christina Romer just resigned, but that’s no cause for concern. The latest from Obama is that ‘private employment has increased every month’ during 2010. Really? Does that mean there are more jobs today than there were yesterday?

Following is my latest presidential scorecard, based purely on official BLS data:
Scorecard - Click to Enlarge
Obama was quick to take credit for the false increase in overall employment, earlier this year, when the U.S. Census Bureau hired 500,000 temporary workers, but now that they’re all gone he’s been slow to acknowledge the true situation. According to the BLS there were 139.8 million Americans employed in July of 2009, and 138.9 million employed in July of 2010. That’s a decline of 857,000 jobs over the past 12 month’s. There has actually been a steady, and progressive, decline in civilian employment for the past year, but you know, Obama doesn’t have time to look at facts and figures.

When G.W. Bush entered office in January of 2001, there were 136.8 million jobs. When he left office in December of 2008, there were 145.3 million jobs. When Obama entered office in January of 2009, there were 145.3 million jobs. As of July 31st of this year, there were 138.9 million jobs. So when we do the math, there are now 6.4 million fewer jobs than there were when Obama entered office in January of 2009. That’s reality. That’s what it feels like on the ground. Obama is losing, and losing big. And in his losing, he’s dragging America and the Democrat party along for the ride.

Is this what success looks like in the minds of progressive Democrats? Is losing the new winning? If so, Obama is certainly leading the pack. It’s time to throw the bum(s) out!

Just so you know that I’m not making this stuff up, here’s a snapshot of the latest BLS report:
BLS Table A - Double Click to Enlarge
Sources:

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation 8/6/2010

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Historical Data

Related:

Obama on Jobs: Fool Me Thrice

Obama on Jobs: Worst Track Record in History

Recovery (dot) Fail Not Jobs

The labor force has never decreased since World War II – and it has now decreased for two years in a row under the worst failure in American history.

We have one chance, and only one chance, to avoid a Great Depression.  And that is to elect a Republican House of Representatives and a Republican Senate.

Bill Clinton gets all the credit for being the economic genius who gave us incredible economic growth by the mainstream media.  But if that’s so, why was he smacked down with the biggest political landslide in American history, when Republicans came from out of nowhere to retake both the House and the Senate in 1994?  And why was it that it was only AFTER the Republicans took control of Congress that we began to see the positive economic developments?

Read my article on the subject for why the credit for the “Clinton Economy” belongs with the Republicans in Congress.  It is Congress which enacts budgets, and it is Congress alone which has the authority to spend.

It is also Congress alone which can check a foolish, incompetent, and out-of-control president.

Why Have Republicans Jumped Out To Largest Lead EVER Over Democrats?

June 2, 2010

Something is building and growing.  And it is in response to the total failure of Democrat control.

June 1st, 2010
Republicans Jump Out To Historic Lead In Gallup Generic Ballot
Posted by Sean Trende

Gallup’s generic polling shows the number of voters saying that they would vote for Republicans rising three points from last week, while the number saying they will vote for Democrats dropped four pointsThe 49%-43% lead for the Republicans is the largest that the pollster has ever recorded for the partyMoreover, Democratic enthusiasm for voting this fall fell a point, while enthusiasm among Republicans stayed about fifteen points higher.  This indicates an even wider lead for Republicans once Gallup imposes a likely voter screen this fall.

There’s any number of reasons for this:  the public’s perception of Obama’s response to the oil spill, the shaky stock market performance last week, continued concern about the economy and spending.  The bottom line is that, despite what is perceived as an underperformance for the Republicans in PA-12 a couple of weeks ago, there are still plenty of Democrats in trouble for this November.

Keep up the good work, Democrats.

At the rate you’re going, there may not even BE any Democrats soon.  Because you suck, and people are starting to figure that out.

In addition to the fact that oil is pouring into the ocean at a rate that defies comprehension (we’re up to four times the calamity that the Exxon Valdez created with no end in sight), our banks that anchor our economy are bleeding out nearly as badly:

May 24, 2010
What recovery? Bank failures double this year compared to 2009

Although the federal bailout stabilized the banking system, bank failures are continuing at at rapid clip. Check out the latest federal tally. More than twice as many banks and savings and loans have been seized by regulators this year as in the same period last year: 73 in 2010, and 33 in 2009.

Banking analysts have long been warning us to expect a bumper crop of failures among small- to medium-sized community and regional banks this year. Many of the big banks that teetered on the edge of collapse had made bad bets on exotic mortgage securities. But most of the smaller banks are feeling the effects of residential mortgage foreclosures (such at the one pictured here) and, increasingly, commercial property loans going bad.

The Associated Press sums it up thus:

With 78 closures nationwide so far this year, the pace of bank failures is more than double that of 2009, which was already a brisk year for shutdowns. By this time last year, regulators had closed 36 banks. The pace has accelerated as banks’ losses mount on loans made for commercial property and development.

Now, remember that the first half of last year was the DEPTHS of the recession.  And it’s more than twice as bad this year as it was during those depths of the recession.

The only thing worse than having Republicans run things is having Democrats run things.  Only Democrats run things so much worse that America compares to a Swiss watch under Republicans.

Democrats do one thing well: they demagogue better than anybody in the world.  But lest we forget, during the period when the economy truly went into the crapper, between 2006 and 2008, it was under the total domination of Congress by Democrats.  Add that to the fact that it was Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that created the becoming disaster for the very reasons that banks are still struggling (idiotic mortgage policies) that the Democrats owned lock, stock and barrel.

Meredith Whitney accurately predicted the economic meltdown when a lot of other “experts” were saying buy, buy, buy.

Here’s what she said in July of last year:

Unemployment is likely to rise to 13 percent or higher and will weigh on the economy for several years, countering government efforts to stabilize the banking industry, analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.

And a year later, does it appear that the government has stabilized the banking industry?  NOT EVEN FREAKING CLOSE!!! The factors that Whitney cited in predicting 13% unemployment are happening before your very eyes.

Looking at 13% unemployment coming up, all I can think of is Al Pacino in Scarface: “Say hello to my little friend!

As bad a year as Bush had (thanks to Democrats who refused to do anything about the mortgage security crisis created and sustained by Fannie and Freddie), unemployment was 7.6% when Bush left office.

What was it the last month statistics were available, under Obama’s, Pelosi’s, and Reid’s terrible misrule?  9.9%.  And that after a massive failed stimulus that Obama promised would keep unemployment under 8%.  Obviously, it did nothing of the sort, but our children’s children’s children’s children will still be paying off a $3.27 TRILLION black hole of debt anyway.

Did somebody say “debt”?

Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge wrote on May 25:

This means that as of this moment, assuming the new debt were to settle today, the US has $13,031,095 billion in debt: congratulation America – you have now passed lucky $13 trillion in total debt. But don’t worry, we won’t stay here for long. At the current rate of issuance, $14 trillion will be passed in 8 months, and $15 trillion in another 7. By the end of 2011, we estimate total US sovereign debt to be about $15.5 trillion.

Democrats tore into Bush tooth and nail over his increase of the national debt.  That said, it took George Bush eight full years to increase the debt by $4.89 trillion.

Right now, under Barry Hussein, it is $13.o28 trillion.  Which is to say that Obama increased the debt by more than $2.4 trillion in only fifteen months.  That will be more than $3.4 trillion in just over two years in office.  By the end of 2011, after less than three full years in office, Obama’s share of the debt will be $4.9 trillion.

Which is to say that Obama will have racked up as much debt as Bush did in eight years in only three.  Obama is increasing the debt at nearly three times the rate that Bush did.

Which goes back to what I said about Republicans being bad – unless you compare them against Democrats.

Over the past thirty years, Democrat Congresses have increased the debt 2.4 times as much as have Republican Congresses.  Another way to put it is that Democrat Congresses have spent 137.7% more than Republican Congresses.

We are hurtling toward a disaster that will create a collapse that will ultimately make the Great Depression look like a walk in the park.  The United States of America is going to completely implode – and no one will bail us out when it happens.

You want to watch your kids starve to death before your eyes?  Elect Democrats.  Because that would be the kind of “change” you can truly “hope” for.

Obama Administration Admits It Will Leave Unemployment Higher Than It Found It

February 2, 2010

Get ready for three more years of blaming Bush.

It was George Bush’s fault that Obama lost more jobs than any president in any year since records began being kept in 1940, of course.  Everyone who takes their propaganda seriously knows that.

And it will ALWAYS be George Bush’s fault.  George Bush is Obama’s Emmanuel Goldstein – the scapegoat that Big Brother eternally blames for all the woes of Oceania.

From ABC:

At a subsequent briefing with reporters, Christina Romer said that the administration believes the unemployment rate will continue to hover around 10-percent throughout 2010.  She projects that 2010 will end with the unemployment rate at 9.8%, 2011 at 8.9% and 2012 at 7.9%.

Christina Romer, who heads Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, forecasts that unemployment will be at 7.9% by the end of Obama’s term in 2012.  The thing is, it was 7.6% when he took office from George Bush.

So the people who assured us that unemployment would never get over 8% if their pork-laden liberal slush fund otherwise known as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 was passed are now forecasting that they might actually get unemployment below what they said it wouldn’t ever get to by the end of Obama’s presidency.

And that, of course, is looking on the very, very bright side.

Both the Congressional Budget Office and  Goldman Sachs predict that unemployment will be considerably worse than the Obama administration figures.

The Obama administration continued to pimp its porkulus and – use utterly bogus methodology and utter bogus statistics to do so – even long after the lie became obvious.  A year after using the purely invented criteria of “created or saved jobs,” and after being caught again and again creating phony job numbers complete with phony zip codes and phony congressional districts, the Obama administration finally said that it would abandon its “controversial method of counting jobs” (to quote the AP).  But that was just another lie: they went right back to rolling in their own feces again.

The White House’s “created or saved” job numbers are so pulled-out-of-thin-air that three different Obama officials actually gave three different bogus “created jobs” numbers on the very same day.

The only thing you can trust the Obama administration to do is lie to you.

And since they always lie to favor themselves and make themselves look better, you have to wonder how bad things will actually get for Obama to make such a stunning acknowledgment (that unemployment will remain higher than it was when Obama took office throughout his entire presidency).

There’s a dirty little secret about our unemployment that Obama and the lamestream media aren’t telling us.

I continue to believe that unemployment will continue to get worse in agreement with famed analyst Meredith Whitney:

Unemployment is likely to rise to 13 percent or higher and will weigh on the economy for several years, countering government efforts to stabilize the banking industry, analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC.

I have never heard the kind of demagoguery and blame from any president in my lifetime that I have routinely heard from Barack Obama.  He has spread every imaginable species of bull crap to explain his failures.

Now that we find out that – by Obama’s very own numbers – his unemployment rate will continue to remain higher than it was than when he assumed the presidency from George Bush,  we can safely assume that blame, excuses, and demagoguery will be the constant pattern for the final three years of Obama’s failed presidency.


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