How McCain Can Win Electoral College And Lose Popular Vote

There are a number of solidly blue large states that will drive up the tally of Obama’s popular vote support.  California, New York, and Illinois are examples of states that should easily go to Obama by huge margins.

But winning one state by a big margin in an all or nothing state doesn’t mean any more in the Presidential contest than winning that state by one single vote.

We are a nation that decides Presidents by an electoral college system that is based on building a coalition of states that results in at least 270 electoral college votes.  Any combination of states that results in at least 270 electoral college votes wins the White House.

Right now, there are fundamentally seven “battleground” states that will decide the election, with the remaining states having already fallen one way or the other: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania.  The way the election has been breaking based on polling data, McCain has to win the first seven, or make up for a loss by winning Pennsylvania.

The point is, McCain could easily lose the popular vote by a significant margin and still win the election by narrowly winning the states he needs to win.  In the 2000 election, Gore lost to Bush while receiving a little over half a million more popular votes.  The same thing could happen to Obama, only on a much more massive scale of several million votes.

What is frightening for Democrats is that McCain has been making significant gains in those key states.  The fact that Barack Obama promised an audience of San Franciscans that his plan would bankrupt the coal industry ( and send the cost of electicity skyrocketing in the process) will not help his chances in four of those eight states.  Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, and Indiana are four of ten states which collectively provide 90% of America’s massive coal industry.  Coal produces 49% of the electiricy consumed in the United States, so frankly everyone who doesn’t want to freeze in the dark should care.

The coal industry is located in some of the hardest-hit states.  Obama’s words could have devastating consequences for a large swath of the nation.

Rasmussen currently has McCain tied with Obama in four of those vital states (Colorado, Ohio, Missouri, and Virginia), and the Rasmussen data would not include either the full extent of the late McCain surge or the fallout from Obama’s “bankrupt the coal plants” statement.  And the poll that predicted the race most accurately in the last presidential election has the national race within two points, within the IBD/TIPP poll’s margin of error.  Most polls show the race at a 6-7 point gap.

On top of these factors is the so-called Bradley Effect, in which people told pollsters misleading information, but in the end refused to vote for a black candidate (Tom Bradley) who had led in the polls and who continued to lead in the exit polling in the 1982 race for Governor of California.   And Barack Obama, whether due to the “Bradley Effect” or something else, did not prove to be a stong finisher during the primary races against Hillary Clinton.  John McCain, by contrast, has always been a historically strong finisher who has relied on a “72 hour” strategy and simply doesn’t have any quit in him.

It may be a crucial factoid that seven of the eight critical states are traditionally Republican.  If Republicans have a stronger get-out-the-vote machine in their “home field states,” McCain may very well pull out a shocking win.

An Associated Press article by Liz Sidoti titled “Can Obama win popular vote but lose election?” appears to be a fairly balanced presentation of the facts as most of the media believe they understand them.

But we can go back to 1980 to see the media asking the question, “Where the Polls Went Wrong” to try to cope with bad projections that led to massive failures by both the polling organizations and the media who broadcast what turned out to be disinformation.

One thing I know: nobody deserves to look bad more than the mainstream media.

McCain Halves Obama Lead In Gallop Poll

John McCain was down by 8 points on Monday.  Tuesday it was down to 6.  And Wednesday it’s down to 4.

Wednesday Gallup Poll: McCain cuts further into Obama’s lead

By Yael T. Abouhalkah, Kansas City Star Editorial Page columnist

Gaining momentum, John McCain edged closer to Barack Obama in Wednesday’s Gallup Poll. McCain now trails 48-44 percent, slashing the 8-percentage point lead Obama held over the weekend.

Again, this is surprising news for all the Obama supporters who thought the bad news about the bailout bill would hurt McCain. That’s because McCain had failed to get a bill approved, even after announcing he was suspending his campaign a week to work on it.

Now we await the outcome of the Thursday vice presidential debate between Sarah Palin and Joe Biden.

On the negative side, the American people are largely uninformed, fickle, and prone to fits.  On the plus side, they tend to be forgiving and willing to change their minds to accomodate changing conditions.

Clearly, the financial crisis has a lot of people very angry, and the easiest target for blame is President Bush.  In actuality, Democrats bear a great deal of the blame for this crisis, but the stories condemning Democrats (surprise) are not appearing in the mainstream media, and one has to do some independent investigating to find out the truth.  That said, it appears that the fact that the Republicans and Bush do not bear all the blame for the disaster is trickling through.

The race is close nationally, although the crucial electoral college map clearly appears to favor Barack Obama at this point, and Obama has the edge in the battleground states as well.

Still, it was the other way around less than two weeks ago, and – obviously – the voter mood can turn on a dime.

Given that Obama has frequently underperformed relative to the polls when the vote was actually taken, as long as McCain keeps it close, Republicans should feel confident.

Assuming that the House approves the $700 billion rescue package – which has wildly distorted the presidential race (considering that both largely agree on the specifics) – the election should return to the previous policy issues.

The real X-factor is the Palin-Biden debate.  Some analysts believe that the debate is crucial, given the incredible interest in Sarah Palin; others think it is irrelevant, given the past trends.  I’m one who believes that a strong performance – although not necessarily a “win” – is crucial to the McCain-Palin ticket.

Obama’s ZERO Lack Of Progress With Hillary Voters Eroding Dem Confidence

“Barack Obama’s support from backers of Hillary Rodham Clinton is stuck smack where it was in June, a poll showed Tuesday, a stunning lack of progress that is weakening him with members of the Democratic Party in the close presidential race,” according to the Washington Times.  The Times article also says that Hillary Clinton primary voters “find Obama less likable, honest, experienced and inspiring than Democrats overall do, and have a better view of McCain.”

That’s what I call a triple whammy: zero progress with an essential voter block; erosion of confidence in the Democratic Party; and a whopping load of Democrats don’t like him, don’t trust him, don’t think he’s qualified, and actually prefer his Republican opponent over him.

Sounds like things aren’t going all that great in Obamaland, the Peoples’ Socialist Republic of.  And when you add to these woes the problems he’s having in crucial swing states he desperately needs to win (like Pennsylvania), and the six point gulf between what the polls say and how he will likely actually do in November, and Obama’s problems begin to stack up like a house of cards.

I have marvelled at just how terrible a candidate Barack Obama has been since learning of his incredibly radical church and his incredibly anti-American and anti-white reverend.  He is the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate, who in turn chose the third most liberal member of the Senate as his running mate.  Even the man’s vaunted speaking ability has turned out to be limited to the presence of a teleprompter!  And yet fickle Demorats spurned their inevitable candidate for a fling with a politician who cynically promised to bring “hope” and “change,” but turned out to have “the political instincts of a Chicago thug.”

There are some discrepencies in the polling data, like there always are in almost every polling issue; just enough to provide the Obama campaing with hope:

Obama spokesman Bill Burton said Clinton supporters are turning to Obama “in huge numbers” and noted that the AP-Yahoo News data differed from other polls. He said strong feelings by Clinton supporters were understandable considering the length and intensity of the Democratic primaries and said of Clinton, “She’s done everything we’ve asked her to do.”

But I would submit that this is the same overconfident and arrogant campaign that was being widely criticized by Democratic insiders only ten days ago.

Americans are outraged over the housing finance meltdown, and Obama has benefitted with a short term bump in the polls.  But few analysts believe that the Wall Street turmoil will be decisive, and some feel that if Americans are truly frightened, they will turn to McCain, who leads Obama in perceived trust, leadership, and experience according to poll internals.

Obama Camp Too Arrogant To Realize It’s In Trouble

An article titled “Barack Obama under fire for ignoring advice on how to beat John McCain” reveals a number of key points, such as:

1) Democratic Party advisors are deeply concerned about the Obama campaign.

2) These advisers are particularly concerned because they believe Obama is actually doing 4-6 points WORSE than the polls indicate.

3) The Obama campaign – in a state of denial – is flat-out ignoring the advice from Democratic strategists who have run successful campaigns.

4) The primary reason for this state of denial according to these strategists appears to be arrogance.

5) On the one hand, liberals have a very real problem with having launched vicious and false attacks that have undermined their credibility: “The snobbery of it, the meanness of it, reminded the entire country, for the first time in a decade, what it is they don’t like about the Left.”

6) On the other hand, the Obama campaign has a problem with whining about being attacked: “I really find it offensive when Democrats ask the Republicans not to be nasty to us, which is effectively what Obama keeps doing. They know thats how the game is played.”

The story makes for a very entertaining read for those who want to see a McCain victory (or at least an Obama loss).  If any pro-Obama people read this piece, they can do so knowing that the Obama campaign isn’t paying any attention to any of it:

Barack Obama under fire for ignoring advice on how to beat John McCain

Barack Obama and his senior advisers are under fire for ignoring the advice of Democratic senators and governors who are concerned that they do not know how to beat John McCain.

By Tim Shipman in Washington
Last Updated: 9:29PM BST 13 Sep 2008

The Democratic presidential candidate’s slump in the polls has sparked pointed private criticism that he is squandering a once-in-a-generation chance to win back the White House.

Party elders also believe the Obama camp is in denial about warnings from Democratic pollsters that his true standing is four to six points lower than that in published polls because of hidden racism from voters – something that would put him a long way behind Mr McCain.

The Sunday Telegraph has learned that senators, governors and union leaders who have experience of winning hard-fought races in swing states have been bombarding Obamas campaign headquarters with telephone calls offering advice. But many of those calls have not been returned.

A senior Democratic strategist, who has played a prominent role in two presidential campaigns, told The Sunday Telegraph: “These guys are on the verge of blowing the greatest gimme in the history of American politics. They’re the most arrogant bunch Ive ever seen. They won’t accept that they are losing and they won’t listen.”

After leading throughout the year, Mr Obama now trails Mr McCain by two to three points in national polls.

Party leaders and commentators say that the Democrat candidate spent too much of the summer enjoying his own popularity and not enough defining his positions on the economy – the number one issue for voters – or reaching out to those blue collar workers whose votes he needs if he is to beat Mr McCain.

Others concede that his trip to Europe was a distraction that enhanced his celebrity status rather than his electability on Main Street, USA.

Since Sarah Palin was unveiled as Mr McCain’s running mate, the Obama camp has faced accusations that it has been pushed off message and has been limp in responding to attacks.

A Democratic National Committee official told The Sunday Telegraph: “I really find it offensive when Democrats ask the Republicans not to be nasty to us, which is effectively what Obama keeps doing. They know thats how the game is played.”

Mr Obama tried to answer that critique on Friday when he responded in kind, issuing an attack advert depicting his Republican opponent as out of touch and mocking the 72-year-old Mr McCain’s confession that he does not know how to use email.

He rammed home the point during a rally in New Hampshire, pointing out Mr McCains recent admission that he was divorced from some of the challenges of ordinary Americans.

Mr Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe, called it the first day of the rest of the campaign.

But that was the fourth time in the last nine months that Mr Obamas team have been forced to declare that the gloves are coming off. And Mr Plouffe’s dismissal of Democratic doubts as hand-wringing and bed-wetting only served to reinforce the growing doubts about what some see as a bunker mentality among Obamas inner circle – where outside advice, even from highly experienced people, is not welcomed.

The Democratic strategist told The Sunday Telegraph: “They think they know best. They don’t return calls. There are governors and senators calling them up with ideas. They don’t get back to them.

“These are senior people from the border states and the South who know how to beat Republicans, and they’re being ignored. They ignored everyone during the primaries and they came through it, so they think they can do the same again.”

Mr Obama has never won an electoral contest against a strong Republican candidate. David Axelrod, his chief strategist has been hailed as a political genius for beating the Clinton machine, but Democrats now point out that he has never run a successful campaign in the heartland states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Virginia, which will decide the election. His expertise is in mobilising young, educated and black voters in urban areas.

Mark Cunningham of the New York Post summed up the private views of many: “If it suddenly seems like the Obama campaign doesn’t have any idea what it’s doing, maybe that’s because it doesn’t.”

Party elders are also studying internal polling material which warns the Obama camp that his true standing is worse than it appears in polls because voters lie to polling companies about their reluctance to vote for a black candidate. The phenomenon is known in the US as the Bradley effect, after Tom Bradley, a black candidate for governor of California who lost after leading comfortably in polls.

The strategist said: “I’ve seen memos where they’ve been told to factor in four to six points for the Bradley effect, but they’re in denial about it.

They say the polls also underestimate the enthusiasm of young voters and African Americans and they believe that balances things out. But that’s a wing and a prayer stuff. There’s previous evidence for the Bradley effect.”

Other Democrats are openly mocking of Mr Obama’s much vaunted “50-state strategy”, in which he spends money campaigning throughout the US in the hope that it will force Mr McCain to divert funds to previously safe states. Critics say a utopian belief in bringing the nation together has trumped the cold electoral calculus that is necessary to triumph in November.

Doug Schoen, a former pollster for Bill Clinton, last week declared it insanity not to concentrate resources on the swing states.

The Democratic strategist said: “My Republican friends think its mad. Before Sarah Palin came along we were investing money in Alaska, for Christ’s sake, that could have been spent in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

“It assumes Republicans are stupid and, when it comes to winning elections, they’re not.”

The one thing everyone agrees the Obama camp have woken up to is the toxic effect on their chances of Mrs Palin’s arrival on the national scene. Polls show that white women voters, attracted to her down home virtues, now support Mr McCain by a margin of 12 points, the same lead among white women that George W. Bush enjoyed over John Kerry in 2004. Until recently, Mr Obama led among that group of voters by six points.

A senior aide to one of the most powerful Democrats in the House of Representatives voiced the fears of many: “Palin doesn’t just play to the Republican base. She has much broader appeal.”

The aide said that her repeated mockery of Mr Obama’s boasts about his time as a community organiser in Chicago are “the most effective criticisms of Barack Obama we have yet seen.” He said: “Americans in small and medium size towns dont know what the hell a community organiser is. Real Americans graduate from high school or college and get a job that pays a wage. Campus radicals go off and organise a community.”

Peggy Noonan, the former Reagan speechwriter, blamed the defection of women voters from Mr Obama on the atom bomb of ritual abuse by left-wing bloggers and Democratic officials, painting Mrs Palin as a bad mother and religious weirdo.

Ms Noonan wrote: “The snobbery of it, the meanness of it, reminded the entire country, for the first time in a decade, what it is they don’t like about the Left.”

The Republican strategist Dan Schnur said that the effect was to repel blue collar, family-oriented voters. “They didn’t like Obama in the primaries and voted for Hillary. And they still don’t like him now so they’re voting for Palin.

“Obama can still win these voters over, but his difficulty in establishing an emotional connection with them is probably his greatest challenge between now and election day.”

On Thursday Mr Obama did take advice from Bill Clinton, who is understood to have suggested ways to show those workers that he cares, an area where the former president excelled.

But it is a measure of his plight that the man who derailed the ambitions of Mrs Clinton, the most powerful woman in Democratic politics, now needs help from her husband to overcome the popularity of another alpha female who may be an even greater risk to his White House ambitions.