Posts Tagged ‘CU-Boulder’

Best Presidential Election Forecast Still Holds Romney Will Have Big Win (330 to 208 In Electoral College) On Election Day After Updating Their Forecast

October 5, 2012

After a good three weeks of mainstream media liberal propagandist claiming that the election was over and Obama won, this:

CU-Boulder prof’s updated forecast still gives win to Mitt Romney
Analysis updated with more current economic data shows win for GOP
By Brittany Anas, Camera Staff Writerdailycamera.com
Posted:   10/04/2012 11:54:21 AM MDT
October 4, 2012 11:7 PM GMTUpdated:   10/04/2012 05:07:37 PM MDT

With the presidential election a little more than a month away, political science professors from the University of Colorado have updated their election forecast with more current economic conditions and are standing by their prediction that Mitt Romney will win.

The professors — Kenneth Bickers of CU’s Boulder campus and Michael Berry of CU’s Denver campus — project that Romney will earn 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes.

“The economic fundamentals still suggest it’s a difficult terrain for any incumbent to run for re-election,” Bickers said in an interview.

President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes, which is down five from the initial prediction that the professors announced on Aug. 22.

Bickers said that economic conditions continue to favor Romney, even though many polls are showing the president in the lead.

Bickers recalled that incumbent Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan in the polls well into October during the 1980 election that Reagan ended up winning in a landslide.

The model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and, they say, it is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. To make their predictions, the professors comb economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

The professors’ model includes state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in income.

The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. This is the last update they’ll release before the election.

The U.S. Department of Labor’s jobs report will be released Friday.

The professors have identified 13 battleground states and the only one to change in the update was New Mexico, which they now predict as a narrow victory for Romney.

The model predicts that Romney will carry Colorado, with 53.3 percent of the vote. Bickers said that Colorado should expect to see more activity from both the Obama and Romney campaigns.

“Colorado is very much on the bubble,” he said.

The original prediction model from Bickers and Berry was one of 13 published in August in “PS: Political Science and Politics,” which is an American Political Science Association peer-reviewed journal. The publication has published a collection of presidential election models every four years since 1996. Berry said that this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes.

Of the models, five predicted an Obama win. Five forecast a win for Romney. And the remaining three declared the race a toss-up.

Contact Camera Staff Writer Brittany Anas at 303-473-1132 or anasb@dailycamera.com.

Not only is Obama still not winning, but he actually just LOST five electoral votes in the updated analysis.

And this is the Cadillac model of presidential election prediction.

As I pointed out before, this is a model that has picked EVERY SINGLE WINNER going back to 1980.  That’s eight straight wins and no losses, kids.

CU-Boulder Analysis That Has Accurately Predicted EVERY Presidential Race Since 1980 Says Romney Wins, 52.9% To 47.1%, By 320 To 270 Electoral Votes

August 23, 2012

The Colorado University analysis is based primarily on economic data.  So it ought to be a highly relevant fact that Gallup just released a poll that says Americans disapprove of Obama’s economic performance by a measure of 60 to 36.

Obviously, there will probably eventually be a first time for CU-Boulder’s analysis to be wrong, but this is sure good news for Romney (and America!) and bad news for Obama and liberals:

CU-Boulder analysis of election factors points to Romney win
Wednesday, 22 August 2012 18:23 staff

A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
 
The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
 
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
 
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.
 
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”
 
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.
 
The study will be published this month in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. It will be among about a dozen election prediction models, but one of only two to focus on the Electoral College.
 
While many forecast models are based on the popular vote, the Electoral College model developed by Bickers and Berry is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions.
 
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors looked at per capita income, which indicates the extent to which people have more or less disposable income. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.
 
Accordingly — and depending largely on which party is in the White House at the time — each factor can either help or hurt the major parties disproportionately.
 
Their results show that “the apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House disappears when the national unemployment rate hits 5.6 percent,” Berry said. The results indicate, according to Bickers, “that the incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”
 
In an examination of other factors, the authors found that none of the following had any statistically significant effect on whether a state ultimately went for a particular candidate: The location of a party’s national convention; the home state of the vice president; or the partisanship of state governors.
 
In 2012, “What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Bickers said.
 
In Colorado, which went for Obama in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 51.9 percent of the vote to Obama’s 48.1 percent, again with only the two major parties considered.
 
The authors also provided caveats. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and close tallies in certain states. The current data was taken five months in advance of the Nov. 6 election and they plan to update it with more current economic data in September. A second factor is that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall an unexpected direction.
 
“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” Berry said.
 
Election prediction models “suggest that presidential elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy,” Bickers said. “It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I find that heartening for our democracy.”

There are, for the record, 538 electoral college votes.  If Obama wins 218, that means that Romney will win 320.  And this analysis has Romney winning virtually ALL the critical swing states.

Personally, for the sake of America, I hope the margin is even greater.  I hope that Romney has an overwhelming mandate to restore America and undo Obama’s failed attempt to “fundamentally transform” it.

Does this mean Republicans should ease off the throttle?  HELL NO!  It means that we ought to be like General Patton and determine to drive right through and right over the enemy.

Give money donations, knowing that unlike Obama supporters you won’t be pissing your money away in a failed cause to top off a failed presidency.

Give time donations, knowing that if you volunteer for the Romney campaign, you’ll be serving the next president of the United States rather than wasting your time like Obama supporters.

And give your vote, knowing that if you vote for Romney, you’ll be voting for the winner rather than wasting your vote on the loser.

[Update, 8/23/12]: It is being reported today that new polling shows in the Real Clear Politics average that Mitt Romney is gaining momentum in eight of the nine key swing states while Obama is either flat or losing ground.