Posts Tagged ‘independent voters’

Is A Giant Storm About To Hit America That ISN’T Hurricane Sandy? Romney Poised To Wash Right Over Obama.

October 29, 2012

Obviously, I don’t know what’s going to happen in eight days.  But I feel a heck of a lot better for the same reasons that a lot of Democrats are feeling a heck of a lot worse:

Gathering Storm: Time for Dems to Hit Panic Button
by Mike Flynn 28 Oct 2012, 4:08 PM PDT

A massive and historic storm is barreling towards the beltway this weekend. The entire DC-NYC axis, headquarters of the left media complex, will suffer the effects of three storm-fronts, converging at the same time. Evacuations may be ordered, but it is likely too late. No, I’m not talking about Hurricane Sandy. The storm I mean is the growing realization that Obama is on the cusp of losing the election. But, with just a little over a week to go, it may be too late to hit the panic button.

Democrats and the media have labored under several false assumptions the entire campaign. They wove these into a narrative that Obama’s reelection was inevitable. It may have helped them sleep at night, but it caused them to miss the teutonic plates shifting beneath the election. This weekend three storm-fronts started converging that will sweep their assumptions away. Let’s look at each in turn.

The first storm-front is the expanding campaign battleground. I’ve long noted that which states become competitive towards the end of the race can tell you a lot about the state of the campaign. In 2008, when “red” states like Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina and Montana suddenly became competitive, it was a clear sign that Obama had a huge momentum advantage. This year, however, it is “blue” states becoming competitive. In the final week, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota are emerging as new battleground states. If Romney’s position is improving in states like these, its a good sign that he slated to win states like Florida, Colorado, Virginia and Ohio.

Even if Obama still has the edge in these newly competitive states, the fact that the campaign will have to spend resources to shore them up says a lot about the campaign’s weak position.

The second storm-front is the increased convergence of the polls in the direction of Romney. Most national tracking polls show Romney with a lead, with two, Rasmussen and Gallup, showing him over the important 50% threshold. For a week or so, Democrats consoled themselves that Obama led in state-level polling. Most of those polls were built on samples that assumed Democrats would match or exceed the turnout advantage they enjoyed in 2008. This was always something of a fantasy, but now even this assumption can’t prop up Obama. Virtually every state poll over the last week has shown consistent movement towards Romney. Moreover, virtually every state poll shows Obama stuck below the 50% level of support.

For a variety of reasons, it is very difficult for an incumbent to get back above 50% once they have fallen below it for a considerable period of time. North Carolina, Florida, Colorado and Virginia are likely now out of reach for Obama. Ohio is definitely moving towards Romney.

Romney’s poll movement isn’t just on the overall head-to-head match up, though. In almost every poll he now has a substantial lead on who would better handle the economy. He has a significant lead on who can best tackle federal spending and the deficit. He is also starting to lead on the softer questions like “understands my problems”, is a “strong leader” and “can get things done. This suggests a major preference cascade toward the challenger.

Most important, though, is the clear lead Romney has with Independents. In 2008, Obama won independents by 8 points. This year, Romney leads among Independents in virtually every national or state poll, often by double-digits. There is simply no path for Obama to win reelection if he loses Independents by that kind of margin.

The third, most significant storm-front descending on Democrats is the change in the electorate. In 2008, the Democrats rode an historic wave from a near perfect political storm to their largest turnout advantage in decades. In the final vote, Democrats edged Republicans by 7 points, making the election D+7. New research from Rasmussen and Gallup, however, show that, not only is that advantage gone, but Republicans now have the edge. Both surveys report, for the first time in modern history, that more likely voters identify as Republicans than Democrats. Considering that every poll has found GOP voters more enthusiastic about voting then Democrats, this edge may be decisive. Keep in mind that every poll is built on the assumption that Democrats will have a turnout edge next week. If they don’t have the edge or if the GOP has an advantage? Well, this could be a blowout. And, a lot of down-ballot Dems will be swept under as well.

When the history of Obama’s failed reelection campaign is written, it will be noted that Obama’s campaign made a critical strategic blunder. Their plan was to disqualify Romney at the outset, rather than other up a compelling agenda for a second term. They essentially decided to run a challenger’s race, dragging down the opponent in a wave of negative ads. When Romney took the stage at the first debate in Denver, he didn’t just defeat Obama, he defeated Obama’s entire campaign plan. The Romney on the stage didn’t match the caricature painted by Obama and the media. It gave him an opening which he seized.

Obama responded by ratcheting up negative attacks and getting engulfed in small-bore issues issues relevant to mere slivers of the voting base. Big Bird. Binders. Bayonets. In a time of economic uncertainty and looming fiscal crisis, the issues Obama focused on were ridiculous. They were patently unserious. But, these are serious times.

So, going into the final week, Romney looks like a President on the road to reelection, while Obama looks like a challenger who knows he’s about to lose. While the “Gang of 500” media mavens hunker down for Hurricane Sandy, left with their own thoughts after the inevitable power outages, and away from cocooning lefty reassurances from people like Nate Silver, they will have this realization too. Campaign 2012 is just about over. And so, too, is Obama.

You rampage, you giant, pissed-off symbol of the Republican Party.

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Romney Now Up HUGE With Independent Voters (Even Enough To Overcome Mainstream Media’s Incredibly Deceitful Democrat Oversampling Models)

October 10, 2012

This is almost as short as it is incredibly sweet and delicious:

Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Romney up huge with independents
Posted by Christian Heinze at 3:53 PM

Fueling his current polling surge, Mitt Romney’s numbers with indies are just getting remarkably good.

a. IBD/ITP poll released today: Romney 52% Obama 34%.

b. Pew poll, released yesterday: Romney 46% Obama 42%.

c. Politico/GW poll, released yesterday: Romney 51% Obama 35%.

d. CNN, released last week: Romney 49% Obama 41%.

e. National Journal, released October 3: Romney 49% Obama 41%.

Now having said that, Romney has done well this entire cycle with independents, but not enough to overcome turnout models that suggested much, much higher Democratic turnout.

But now he’s killing it so soundly that it’s enough to overcome higher Democratic turnout. In fact, in ARG’s poll of Ohio today, Dems are sampled at +9% over Republicans, but Romney wins indies by 20%, which is enough to inch ahead, overall, 48%-47%.

Some of this is a debate bounce, but as I’ve said, one of the most under-reported stories this cycle has been Romney’s continual lead with independents. That always assured this would be a close election, regardless.

In fact, Barack Obama won indies by 8% in 2008. Romney is easily hitting that number in the most recent batch of polls.

The two best pollsters of 2008 – Rasmussen and Pew – both have Romney up nationally.  Rasmussen has Romney up by 2 points.  And Pew has Romney up by four points after having him down eight before Obama came out and told 70 million Americans that he was a chump who had no business being president.  And Gallup has Romney up by 2 points among likely voters.

Andrew Sullivan – a career liberal who just can’t acknowledge that he obviously is and always has been a career liberal – has officially panicked with his piece, “Did Obama Just Throw The Entire Election Away?”  It kind of reminds me of SNL’s mock-up of “thrill going up my leg” Chris Matthews being taken away in a straitjacket by men in white coats during his post-debate breakdown.

I can only say thank God my Messiah is Jesus, and so I’ll never have to find out what happens when my messiah spectacularly fails the way the liberals’ messiah just did.

How much of this was the result of the fact that Mitt Romney made Barack Obama look like a drooling imbecile last Wednesday at their debate, and how much is it because the mainstream pollsters figured they’d better start making their numbers appear realistic so they wouldn’t look stupid?  I don’t know.

But what I do know is that if independents vote for Mitt Romney in these percentages, it will be a very long, painful night for Obama and a very good night for America.

New Major Poll Has Republican Brown Leading Democrat Coakley By 4 Points

January 14, 2010

It seems like every single poll we’ve seen recently has Republican Scott Brown gaining and Democrat Martha Coakley receding.

I like the trend, and pray for it to continue through a cheat-proof victory.

It’s interesting.  It used to be that Democrats could campaign well, but failed at governing.  Now, after the last couple elections since 2008, it seems as if they can’t even manage to campaign well.

Poll shocker: Scott Brown surges ahead in Senate race
By Jessica Van Sack  |   Thursday, January 14, 2010  |  http://www.bostonherald.com

Riding a wave of opposition to Democratic health-care reform, GOP upstart Scott Brown is leading in the U.S. Senate race, raising the odds of a historic upset that would reverberate all the way to the White House, a new poll shows.

Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

“It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”

The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead. Unenrolled long-shot Joseph L. Kennedy, an information technology executive with no relation to the famous family, gets 3 percent of the vote. Only 1 percent of voters were undecided.

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided.

Given the 4.4-point margin of error, the poll shows Coakley could win the race, Paleologos said. But if Brown’s momentum holds, he is poised to succeed the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy – and to halt health-care reform, the issue the late senator dubbed “the cause of my life.”

Yet even in the bluest state, it appears Kennedy’s quest for universal health care has fallen out of favor, with 51 percent of voters saying they oppose the “national near-universal health-care package” and 61 percent saying they believe the government cannot afford to pay for it.

The poll, conducted Monday through Wednesday, surveyed 500 registered likely voters who knew the date of Tuesday’s election. It shows Brown leading all regions of the state except Suffolk County.

“Either Brown’s momentum accelerates and his lead widens, or this becomes a wake-up call for Coakley to become the ‘Comeback Kid’ this weekend,” Paleologos said.

And with 99 percent having made up their minds, voters may be hard to persuade.

The poll surveyed a carefully partitioned electorate meant to match voter turnout: 39 percent Democrat, 15 percent Republican and 45 percent unenrolled.

Brown wins among men and is remarkably competitive among women – trailing Coakley’s 50 percent with 45 percent.

While Brown has 91 percent of registered Republicans locked up, an astonishing 17 percent of Democrats report they’re jumping ship for Brown as well – likely a product of Coakley’s laser-focus on hard-core Dems, potentially at the exclusion of other Democrats whom she needed to win over, Paleologos said.

For Coakley, Brown’s surge may be as ominous as the fact that her campaign’s peril is not fully recognized, with 64 percent of voters still believing she’ll win – a perception that threatens to keep her supporters home.

Brown’s popularity is solid. He enjoys a 57 percent favorability rating compared to just 19 percent unfavorable. Coakley’s favorability is 49 percent; her unfavorability, 41 percent.

No longer does Brown suffer from a name-recognition problem, with 95 percent of voters having heard of him statewide.

7News Political Editor Andy Hiller said, “Voters obviously think Brown is running a better campaign than Coakley. For months, it has been Coakley’s race to lose, and now in the last days that’s exactly what she may be doing.”

The line of the article might be this: “For Coakley, Brown’s surge may be as ominous as the fact that her campaign’s peril is not fully recognized, with 64 percent of voters still believing she’ll win – a perception that threatens to keep her supporters home.”

It would be talionic justice if Democrats lose Massachusetts because of their same head-in-the-sand denial and dismissal of the fact that the American people have firmly turned against their agenda.

Again, I urge you to support Scott Brown.

Don’t be like the Democrats, and take a victory for granted (if nothing else, be aware that for Democrats, an election only begins after the last vote is counted and the “recounting” starts).

This is an election that, more than any other than the presidential election, affects every single American.  So Americans from all 50 states should exercise their right to support the candidate who will protect their rights not to have ObamaCare shoved down their throats.

The Democrat Party is the party that is determined to thwart the clearly-expressed will of the people.  They should be called the “unDemocratic Party” from now on.

You can volunteer to help Scott Brown end the Democrats dictatorial control of the American political process.  You make a political contribution.  You can even make vitally important phone calls for Scott Brown from your own home.

See my other articles on the Scott Brown/Martha Coakley Massachusetts Senate race:

Martha Coakley Uses Lobbyists And Thugs To Claw Her Way To The Massachusetts Senate

Massachusetts Senate Candidate Martha Coakley’s Vote ALREADY Bought And Paid For

Massachusetts Senate Race: Republican Scott Brown LEADING Democrat