Posts Tagged ‘Kenneth Bickers’

Best Presidential Election Forecast Still Holds Romney Will Have Big Win (330 to 208 In Electoral College) On Election Day After Updating Their Forecast

October 5, 2012

After a good three weeks of mainstream media liberal propagandist claiming that the election was over and Obama won, this:

CU-Boulder prof’s updated forecast still gives win to Mitt Romney
Analysis updated with more current economic data shows win for GOP
By Brittany Anas, Camera Staff
Posted:   10/04/2012 11:54:21 AM MDT
October 4, 2012 11:7 PM GMTUpdated:   10/04/2012 05:07:37 PM MDT

With the presidential election a little more than a month away, political science professors from the University of Colorado have updated their election forecast with more current economic conditions and are standing by their prediction that Mitt Romney will win.

The professors — Kenneth Bickers of CU’s Boulder campus and Michael Berry of CU’s Denver campus — project that Romney will earn 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes.

“The economic fundamentals still suggest it’s a difficult terrain for any incumbent to run for re-election,” Bickers said in an interview.

President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes, which is down five from the initial prediction that the professors announced on Aug. 22.

Bickers said that economic conditions continue to favor Romney, even though many polls are showing the president in the lead.

Bickers recalled that incumbent Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan in the polls well into October during the 1980 election that Reagan ended up winning in a landslide.

The model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and, they say, it is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. To make their predictions, the professors comb economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

The professors’ model includes state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in income.

The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. This is the last update they’ll release before the election.

The U.S. Department of Labor’s jobs report will be released Friday.

The professors have identified 13 battleground states and the only one to change in the update was New Mexico, which they now predict as a narrow victory for Romney.

The model predicts that Romney will carry Colorado, with 53.3 percent of the vote. Bickers said that Colorado should expect to see more activity from both the Obama and Romney campaigns.

“Colorado is very much on the bubble,” he said.

The original prediction model from Bickers and Berry was one of 13 published in August in “PS: Political Science and Politics,” which is an American Political Science Association peer-reviewed journal. The publication has published a collection of presidential election models every four years since 1996. Berry said that this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes.

Of the models, five predicted an Obama win. Five forecast a win for Romney. And the remaining three declared the race a toss-up.

Contact Camera Staff Writer Brittany Anas at 303-473-1132 or

Not only is Obama still not winning, but he actually just LOST five electoral votes in the updated analysis.

And this is the Cadillac model of presidential election prediction.

As I pointed out before, this is a model that has picked EVERY SINGLE WINNER going back to 1980.  That’s eight straight wins and no losses, kids.