Posts Tagged ‘Nate Silver’

Upcoming Slaughter Of House Democrats Might Make 1994 Losses Seem Tame

April 9, 2010

The Washington Examiner provides a very good summary of a detail analysis of a polling expert.

On the positive side (for Democrats), it’s possible they could only lose 20 seats; but realistically, it’s far more likely that they will be utterly slaughtered than the scenario in which they only lose a few seats.

Could Democrats lose 79 House seats in November?
By: Chris Stirewalt
Political Editor
04/09/10 12:32 PM EDT

Nate Silver of today rejiggers his assessment of the midterm elections to reflect a bunch of new numbers that show Republicans with a bigger edge in the generic ballot.

If Republicans outperformed generic-ballot ratings, as they usually do, Silver projects a worst-case scenario for Democrats of 79 seats in the House switching from blue to red based on the surveys of Rasmussen Reports.

Silver puts the more likely scenario at 51 seats going to the GOP — 11 more than they need to take over the majority.

And while he holds out that much smaller Democratic losses are possible — say 20 or 30 seats — his warning to Democrats is that the worst case scenario is more likely to occur and is more catastrophic than previously imagined.

Worth reading.

“The point is not necessarily that these are the most likely scenarios — we certainly ought not to formulate a judgment based on Rasmussen polls alone, as the jury is still out on whether the substantial house effect they’ve displayed this cycle is a feature or a bug. But these sorts of scenarios are frankly on the table. If Democrats were to lose 50, 60, 70 or even more House seats, it would not totally shock me. Nor would it shock me if they merely lost 15, or 20. But their downside case could be very far down.”

If Democrats thought they would benefit by imposing health care by means of the vicious partisan tactic of reconciliation, they were wrong.  Following the passage of ObamaCare, Obama’s approval went into the toilet.

Here’s what top pollster Rasmussen had to say as of April 6:

Forty-six percent (46%) of voters not affiliated with either major party now prefer the Republican candidate, while 24% like the Democrat. These findings show little change from the previous survey. Last week, support among unaffiliateds for Democrats jumped six points, while support for Republicans held steady.

Two weeks after passage of the health care plan, 54% of the nation’s voters still favor repealing it, unchanged since Obama signed the bill into law.

CBS polling showed Obama hitting his lowest point EVER following the passage of ObamaCare.  Now Fox News’ polling shows that that anger against Obama has only increased; their numbers now show that Obama has just hit a new, lower, low.  And they show that the American people are more outraged over the partisan ObamaCare boondoggle than ever before.

It’s hard to say whether Obama ever succeeded in “spreading the wealth” around, given the fact that the percentage of rural or suburban homelessness has risen from 23 percent to 32 percent since last year under his watch.  But one thing is DAMN clear: Obama has spread the rage like no president ever has.  And this rage is “progressive,” too, in that it is progressively growing against Democrats.

Update, April 14, 2010: Did I say 79 seats?  The number could be 100 seats.

Sean Trende – who was one of the first who accurately saw a Scott Brown victory in Massachusetts – had this to say:

…I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility – not merely a far-fetched scenario – that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.

Trende sees the generic ballot between Republicans (red) and Democrats (blue) shaping up like this as we approach November, based on Obama’s “popularity”:

What a lovely looking map!  Unless you’re an unhinged liberal loon.  Then it becomes some kind of Rorschach test.

Not all conservative-open pollsters are seeing these kinds of numbers.  Frank Luntz on Hannity tonight said his projection as of right now was that Republicans would gain 35 House seats.  Nice, but not enough to fire Nancy Pelosi and take back the House of Representatives.

This is the attitude that conservatives need to be stoking: we have a historic opportunity to take back control of our government and undo a lot of the damage that Obama, Pelosi, and Reid did before it truly screws the country.  We shouldn’t be complacent, because it won’t just “happen”; we have to work for it.  Every conservative needs to start seeing himself or herself as their own precinct leader, and be “out there” as much as possible – by writing articles on blogs, or commenting on those articles; by registering people to vote; by keeping informed so he or she can inform others in a convincing manner; by attending tea party rallies; by writing letters and making phone calls; etc. – in order to take back our government and restore the Constitution.