Posts Tagged ‘PPP’

The Polls In Ohio Look A LOT Better For Mitt Romney Than The Media Is Telling You

October 22, 2012

On the traditional view that Ohio is THE critical state, this made me feel a LOT better about Romney’s chances in Ohio.

If you are a liberal, what can I say?  I hope this makes you feel sad:

Mittmentum: New Ohio Polls Better Than They Appear
By Josh Jordan
October 21, 2012 9:27 P.M.

Two new Ohio polls came out yesterday after my Ohio post, from from Gravis Marketing and PPP, both of which point to a razor-thin race in the most coveted swing state. A closer look at each poll shows just how much Romney has gained since the debates, and why he would be absolutely thrilled if these polls were accurate on Election Day.

The poll from Gravis Marketing shows Obama and Romney tied at 47 percent. But that’s as good as it gets for Obama. Among the most interesting tidbits from the poll:

Romney leads Obama by 19 percent among independents, 52–33, and holds 92 percent of his base compared to Obama’s 87 percent. Obama is underwater in job approval, 44–50, and independents disapprove of him overwhelmingly, 31–58. And the poll has a Democratic advantage of 9 percent, which is a 4 percent jump from 2008 — no one believes that Democrats can match their 2008 turnout advantage, let alone almost double it.

PPP (a Democratic firm) released their new poll yesterday showing Obama only up one point, 49 to 48. Just a week ago PPP had the race at 51–46 for Obama. But the four-point gain for Romney is even more impressive when you look at the poll’s findings:

This week’s poll has a Democrat sample advantage of 8 percent; last week’s advantage was 4. Romney gained four points on Obama in a week despite the sample’s having four percentage points more Democrats. Romney leads with independents by 7 percent, up from a 5 percent last week. Obama’s approval is underwater at 48–50, and independents disapprove of him by a 41–54 margin. Last week Obama was in positive approval ground at 50–48, and independents disapproved by a much smaller 45–50 margin. Romney’s favorability has gone from a minus-6 margin last week (45–51) to a plus-2 this week (49–47). Trust on the economy went from Obama plus-5 last week (51–46) to plus-4 in Romney’s direction this week (51–47). Independents jumped from Romney plus-5 last week to Romney plus-15 this week.

These two polls highlight what many saw in the second debate: Romney may have lost the overall debate, but he won handily on the issues of the economy, debt, and taxes. While Democrats were riding high this week after Obama narrowly won the face-off, Romney was quietly solidifying support from voters by commanding the issues that matter most. Based on these two polls, the only way Obama can win Ohio is if he finds a way to greatly surpass 2008 turnout with Democrats, which at the moment seems like an impossible task. If these polls hold, it won’t be long before the state Romney was declared dead in knocks down the last pillar of inevitability that Obama has left.

— Josh Jordan is a small-business market-research consultant. You can follow him on Twitter @Numbersmuncher.

It’s amazing that only a few weeks ago the (mostly liberal) talking heads said that Romney was dead in Ohio and should pull out.  Now Romney is surging ALL OVER THE COUNTRY and the liberal talking heads are saying Obama should pull out of Florida where again just a few weeks ago the polls said Obma had a six point lead.

Maybe if the polls give Obama a fifty point turnout advantage in their models Obama could look better.  Obama would have to do about twenty times better than he did in 2008 with Democrat turnout, but Chris Matthews is sure it’s possible for messiah given Obama’s power to make legs tingle.

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Fox News ‘Most Trusted’ By TWICE The Percentage Of Second-Place PBS

January 19, 2012

Those who continue to pour their hate on Fox News merely prove that they are Kool-Aid-drinking ideologues who aren’t interested in “facts” or “objectivity.”

January 18, 2012
3rd Annual TV News Trust Poll

PPP’s 3rd annual TV news trust poll (2011 version here, 2010 version here) finds that Fox News tops the list for both the source Americans trust the most and the one they trust the least.

Fox is the most trusted TV news source for 34% of voters, followed by PBS at 17%, CNN at 12%, ABC News at 11%, CBS News at 8%, MSNBC at 5%, and Comedy Central and NBC each at 4%.

68% of Republicans pick Fox as their most trusted source, with no one else even hitting double digits. Democrats split closely three ways with PBS at 21%, ABC News at 19%, and CNN at 17%. Despite having a reputation for appealing to the left MSNBC actually polls in only 6th place among Democrats at 8%, finishing slightly behind even Fox News’ 9%. Independents split almost evenly between Fox News (29%) and PBS (27%).

Fox is also the least trusted TV news source for 34% of voters, followed by Comedy Central at 16%, MSNBC at 15%, CNN at 11%, ABC News at 7%, CBS News at 5%, PBS at 2%, and NBC News at 1%.

Democrats (53-17 over Comedy Central) and independents (44-13 over Comedy Central) both overwhelmingly say Fox is their least trusted news source. Republicans go for MSNBC by a 28-23 margin over CNN, followed by Comedy Central at 18% and ABC News at 10%.

In addition to asking the single network voters trusted the most and least, we also asked them to say whether they trusted each individual source. Here’s how they came out from net most trusted to least, compared with the previous two polls:

Outlet 2012 Trust/Distrust 2011 Trust/Distrust 2010 Trust/Distrust Shift from 2010 to 2012 Shift from 2011 to 2012
PBS (52/30) +22 (50/30) +20 Not Tested N/A +2
NBC News (44/38) +6 (41/41) 0 (35/44) -9 +15 +6
CNN (43/39) +4 (40/43) -3 (39/41) -2 +6 +7
Fox News (45/42) +3 (42/46) -4 (49/37) +12 -9 +7
CBS News (40/42) -2 (36/43) -7 (32/46) -14 +12 +5
ABC News (37/40) -3 (35/43) -8 (31/46) -15 +12 +5
MSNBC (38/43) -5 Not Tested Not Tested N/A N/A
Comedy Central (28/46) -18 Not Tested Not Tested N/A N/A

-For the second year in a row PBS easily comes out ahead as the outlet the most people trust, even if it isn’t necessarily the one they trust the most.

-In general trust in television news has been on the rise over the last two years. Trust in NBC News is up 15 points compared to 2010, CBS and ABC News are both up by 12 points, and CNN is up by 6 points. The only outlet in worse shape than it was 2 years ago is Fox News, which is down 9 points. But they’re still headed in the right direction- they’re up 7 points from 2011 after dropping by 16 points between 2010 and 2011.

-Democrats trust everything- except Fox News. NBC does the best with them at +50 (67/17), followed by PBS and CNN at +49 (66/17 and 65/16 respectively), ABC at +38 (57/19), CBS at +35 (58/23), MSNBC at +33 (56/23), and even Comedy Central at +4 (36/32). Fox News comes in at -36 (25/61).

-Republicans meanwhile don’t trust anything except Fox News. PBS comes the closest to breaking even among non-Fox outlets, although not very close, at -30 (26/56). It’s followed by CNN at -49 (18/67), MSNBC at -51 (18/69), NBC at -52 (17/69), CBS at -54 (17/71), ABC at -56 (14/70), and Comedy Central at -59 (12/71). But Fox News comes in at a stellar 73/17.

Independents are with the Democrats. They trust everything except Fox News. Main takeaway from this poll: tv news has become just as polarizing as the political parties in this country.

Full results here

For the record, Public Policy Polling is a DEMOCRAT polling outfit:

Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American Democratic Party-affiliated polling firm based in Raleigh, North Carolina.[1][2][3] PPP was founded in 2001 by businessman and Democratic pollster Dean Debnam, the firm’s current president and chief executive officer.[1][4]

When Fox News calls itself “the most trusted name in news,” what they are underscoring is that the Democrats who continually demonize them are liars.

Massachusetts Senate Race: Republican Scott Brown LEADING Democrat

January 10, 2010

Let me just say this.  If Republican Scott Brown defeats Democrat Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate seat special election on January 19th – as is looking increasingly possible – you can bet that Democrats will be in for the mother of all ass-whoopings in November.

And ObamaCare will likely be DOA as the Democrats lose their filibuster-proof majority eight months and change early.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 9, 2010

Senate Race Competitive

Raleigh, N.C. – The race to replace Ted Kennedy in the US Senate is looking like a toss up, with Republican Scott Brown up 48-47 on Martha Coakley.

Brown is benefiting from depressed Democratic interest in the election and a huge lead among independents for his surprisingly strong standing. Those planning to vote in the special election only report having voted for Barack Obama in 2008 by a 16 point margin, in contrast to his actual 26 point victory in the state.

That decline in turnout from Obama voters plagued Democratic candidates for Governor in Virginia and New Jersey last fall. Beyond that 66% of Republicans say they’re ‘very excited’ about turning out while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment.

Brown leads 63-31 with independents and is winning 17% of the Democratic vote while Coakley receives only 6% support from GOP voters. Both candidates are relatively popular, with 57% viewing Brown favorably to only 25% unfavorable and 50% with a positive opinion of Coakley to 42% negative.

Those folks planning to vote in the special election are actually opposed to Obama’s health care plan by a 47/41 margin and only narrowly express approval of the President’s overall job performance 44/43.

“The Massachusetts Senate race is shaping up as a potential disaster for Democrats,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Martha Coakley’s complacent campaign has put Scott Brown in a surprisingly strong position and she will need to step it up in the final week to win a victory once thought inevitable.”

PPP surveyed 744 likely Massachusetts voters from January 7th to 9th. The margin of error is +/-3.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached and can be found at http://www.publicpolicypolling.com.

I don’t know which poll is most accurate, or which candidate will win.  But this is a solid, legitimate poll with all the questions and cross tabs available at the Public Policy Polling site, which features the above summary.

If you haven’t done so, let me make a personal appeal for a donation to the Brown campaign.  If you have done so, thank you, and please do so again.

Join me and donate:

You can also get involved by volunteering from your own home in Brown’s Call From Home Program.

And whether you can afford to donate to this incredibly important race or not, please pray for the wisdom of the Massachusetts voters.  And pray for a Scott Brown victory.

This might be our last/only chance to stop the ObamaCare disaster.

UPDATE January 12: Rasmussen’s latest poll confirms the general accuracy of the PPP poll, putting Brown down by only 2 points (49-47).  And given that just one week ago, the same Rasmussen poll had the Democrat Coakley up by 9, we can readily see who has the momentum and who doesn’t.

Republican Scott Brown answered a question about a Republican taking Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat during the debate last night.  He answered saying, “It’s not Ted Kennedy’s seat, and it’s not the Democrat Party’s seat.  It’s the American people’s seat.”