Posts Tagged ‘predictions’

Pollsters Seeing Democrats Slaughtered For Their Obama Agenda

October 30, 2010

There’s a video of Wall Street Journal’s “Campaign Journal” saying that Democrats could lose more than sixty House seats.  The previous record was 52 seats, set the LAST time a Democrat president led a Democrat Congress.  Way to go, SanFran Nan.  You and your pal Barry Hussein have led to the greatest destruction of a major political party in U.S. history.

October 29, 2010, 12:35 PM ET
I’m Thinking of a Number Between 48 and A Lot
By Patrick O’Connor

Tuesday night will be a bad one for Democrats. But how bad?

Let’s survey the political soothsayers: The Rothenberg Political Report now predicts Republicans could take somewhere between 55 and 65 Democratic seats “with gains at or above 70 seats possible.” The Cook Political Report says the Democratic losses could total somewhere between 48 and 60 seats “with higher losses possible.”

Nate Silver, whose FiveThirtyEight blog makes predictions based on a weighted average of available polling, puts the number at 53 – and offers no caveats.

“The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified,” wrote the folks at the Cook Political Report. “House Democrats are suffering the full violence of this national undertow.”

With the hours ticking down to Nov. 2, the field of imperiled races seems to keep expanding for Democrats. Just this week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee started spending money to defend Reps. Gabrielle Giffords in Arizona, Ron Klein in Florida and Chris Murphy in Connecticut, among others, according to disclosures filed with the Federal Election Commission. Rothenberg puts a total of 98 seats held by Democrats in play, with only nine Republican-held seats in the contested column.

Mr. Silver at FiveThirtyEight hasn’t officially turned out the lights for House Democrats. They still have a 17% chance of retaining the House, he says, but adds: “their chances of doing so essentially boil down to there being systemic errors in the polling” and the other indicators he uses to compile predictions.

Carnac the Magnificent would be having a ball.

When Obama took power, hat-in-hand Republican leaders came to him to offer compromise and provide their ideas.  Obama arrogantly and dismissively told them, “I won.”

No compromise.  Thus began the Obama regime.  Total Democrat control, with rabidly leftist agenda after agenda rammed down America’s throat, like it or not.  The stimulus.  ObamaCare.

Recently Obama demonstrated that he hadn’t learned a single thing about compromise in two years of failed governance.  He told Republicans, “We don’t mind the Republicans joining us. They can come for the ride, but they gotta sit in back.”

Is that not racist enough for you?  How about this one from our disgrace of a president:

“If Latinos sit out the election instead of saying, ‘We’re gonna punish our enemies and we’re gonna reward our friends who stand with us on issues that are important to us,’ if they don’t see that kind of upsurge in voting in this election, then I think it’s gonna be harder and that’s why I think it’s so important that people focus on voting on November 2.”

We’re literally going to need a white Rosa Parks to tell Obama that she isn’t getting up to ingratiate herself to his despicable, immoral and perverse agenda.

It’s not Islamic terrorists who are our enemies in the United Socialist States of Obamastan; it’s white people who vote Republican.  And if you are a racist Democrat, you need to punish Americans.  Hurt them.  Destroy them.  Break them.

And if the economy goes under in the process, GOOD! Because Obama has his glorious Cloward-Piven strategy to first cripple America, and then “fundamentally transform it” as a socialist utopia.  And if you happen to get mowed under and turned into mulch in the process, well, great change always has consequences and casualties.

Obama will lead this country to ruin, like Ahab pursuing the white whale come what may.  “Change” is clearly not in him when it comes to changing his own pathological agenda.

The only problem is that the American people aren’t quite the sheep that the rest of the world have turned into.  At least, not yet.

 

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Global Warming ‘Scientists’ Admit Purging Their Raw Data

November 30, 2009

This is what a massive scientific hoax looks like.

November 29, 2009
Climate change data dumped
Jonathan Leake, Environment Editor

SCIENTISTS at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have admitted throwing away much of the raw temperature data on which their predictions of global warming are based.

It means that other academics are not able to check basic calculations said to show a long-term rise in temperature over the past 150 years.

The UEA’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU) was forced to reveal the loss following requests for the data under Freedom of Information legislation.

The data were gathered from weather stations around the world and then adjusted to take account of variables in the way they were collected. The revised figures were kept, but the originals — stored on paper and magnetic tape — were dumped to save space when the CRU moved to a new building.

The admission follows the leaking of a thousand private emails sent and received by Professor Phil Jones, the CRU’s director. In them he discusses thwarting climate sceptics seeking access to such data.

In a statement on its website, the CRU said: “We do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (quality controlled and homogenised) data.”

The CRU is the world’s leading centre for reconstructing past climate and temperatures. Climate change sceptics have long been keen to examine exactly how its data were compiled. That is now impossible.

Roger Pielke, professor of environmental studies at Colorado University, discovered data had been lost when he asked for original records. “The CRU is basically saying, ‘Trust us’. So much for settling questions and resolving debates with science,” he said.

Jones was not in charge of the CRU when the data were thrown away in the 1980s, a time when climate change was seen as a less pressing issue. The lost material was used to build the databases that have been his life’s work, showing how the world has warmed by 0.8C over the past 157 years.

He and his colleagues say this temperature rise is “unequivocally” linked to greenhouse gas emissions generated by humans. Their findings are one of the main pieces of evidence used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which says global warming is a threat to humanity.

“Trust us.”  That’s what it all boils down to.

Silly me, but I thought “science” was supposed to amount to something more than that.

Here’s your bottom line: global warming, climate change, or whatever you want to call it, is a load of nonsense.  And the only anthropogenic or “man-made” problem is the giant sack of lies that an elitist group of pseudo-scientific ideologues  sold us.

One of the emails simply demonstrates what patently bad “science” global warming has been in the first place.  At its core, science is an endeavor which predicts a certain measurable outcome, and then attempts to determine whether that prediction is verified in nature according to a fair, open, and repeatable process.  Global warming isn’t even close to being science by the very standards of science:

At the end of 2008, the scientists at East Anglia predicted that 2009 would be one of the warmest years on record:

On December 30, climate scientists from the UK Met Office and the University of East Anglia projected 2009 will be one of the top five warmest years on record. Average global temperatures for 2009 are predicted to be 0.4∞C above the 1961-1990 average of 14 ∫ C. A multiyear forecast using a Met Office climate model indicates a rapid return of global temperature to the long-term warming trend, with an increasing probability of record temperatures after 2009.

We know now that the alarmists’ prediction for 2009 didn’t come true.

But bad science wasn’t all these global warming alarmists were guilty of.  They were also guilty of making skeptics of their bogus man-caused global warming alarmism modern versions of Galileo (I’ve previously written about this chilling development in postmodernized academia to punish politically “incorrect” academics and scientists).  They used the peer-review process as an ideological club to attack and undermine fellow scientists rather than using it as a means to get at the truth:

Dating back to 1996, the emails show that both U.S. and U.K. based scientists referred to any research offering alternate viewpoints as “disinformation”,“misinformation” or “crap” that needs to be kept out of the public domain.

The emails include deliberations amongst the scientists regarding efforts to make sure that reports from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change include their own research and exclude that of dissenting scientists.

In one of the emails, Phil Jones, the director of the East Anglia climate center, suggested to climate scientist Michael Mann of Penn State University We “will keep them out somehow — even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!”

This is a startling quote, given that Jones and Mann as climate scientists have the authority to review papers and determine whether they are eligible to be published by scientific journals.

Mann even discussed how to destroy a journal that had published papers with contrary views, telling his colleagues that he believed it had been “hijacked by a few skeptics on the editorial board” who had “staged a coup”.

“Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal.” Mann wrote.

One article, entitled, how “The Alarmists Do “Science:” A Case Study,” describes just “one of many exchanges that shed light on the priority that the global warming alarmists give to politics and career advancement over science.”  The author provides a fairly lengthy segment of an email conversation that is frankly chilling.

Another article compiles emails under the title, “When In Doubt, Delete,” that documents a pattern of deceptive behavior by people who called themselves “scientists” and yet were more interested in destroying evidence than producing and preserving it.

There are so many emails to go over no single article can do so, but here’s a few tidbits:

From a Powerline article entitled, “Global Warming Bombshell“:

They also suggest that pro-global warming scientists fudge data to get the results they are looking for. Just over a month ago, on September 28, 2009, Tom Wigley wrote to Phil Jones of the Hadley Centre about his efforts to get the right-sized “blip” in temperatures of the 1940s:

Phil, Here are some speculations on correcting SSTs to partly explain the 1940s warming blip. If you look at the attached plot you will see that the land also shows the 1940s blip (as I’m sure you know). So, if we could reduce the ocean blip by, say, 0.15 degC, then this would be significant for the global mean — but we’d still have to explain the land blip.

I’ve chosen 0.15 here deliberately. This still leaves an ocean blip, and i think one needs to have some form of ocean blip to explain the land blip (via either some common forcing, or ocean forcing land, or vice versa, or all of these). When you look at other blips, the land blips are 1.5 to 2 times (roughly) the ocean blips — higher sensitivity plus thermal inertia effects. My 0.15 adjustment leaves things consistent with this, so you can see where I am coming from. Removing ENSO does not affect this.

It would be good to remove at least part of the 1940s blip, but we are still left with “why the blip”.

This and many other emails convey the impression that these theorists are making the “science” up as they go along, with data being manipulated until it yields the results that have been predetermined by political conviction.

One email from Phil Jones is particularly damning about “scientists” making up their own version of “science” in order to sell an ideology:

I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd [sic] from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.

A RealClearPolitics article entitled, “ClimateGate: The Fix Is In” explains what the “trick” is:

Anthony Watts provides an explanation of this case in technical detail; the “trick” consists of selectively mixing two different kinds of data-temperature “proxies” from tree rings and actual thermometer measurements-in a way designed to produce a graph of global temperatures that ends the way the global warming establishment wants it to: with an upward “hockey stick” slope.

A “trick” to “hide the decline.”  And these demagogues call US “deniers.”

As loathsome of a collection of frauds as our global warming “scientists” have proven to be, they don’t hold a candle to the mainstream media propagandists who made this colossal hoax possible in the first place – and who are still trying to conceal the fraud even now.

Barack Obama is going to go to Copenhagen to sign some pathologically insane economy-destroying accord because he is a true believer in the religion of liberalism.

And that is what global warming has now been proven to be: a religion.  It is an ideology advanced by religious fanatics.  This latest admission proves they have no raw data; they have no “science”; all they have is a rabid faith commitment that their own self-created narratives must be true because they believe it is true.