Posts Tagged ‘RCP average’

Romney Surge Continues With Seven-Point Gallup Lead And First EVER Lead In Electoral College Over Obama

October 19, 2012

First of all, there’s the Gallup poll of likely voters (the most accurate measure of actual voter turnout):

Mitt Romney has opened up a 7-point lead.  And if that number is even close to correct, this race is OVER.

Only a few days ago, the blabbing heads were talking about Romney winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college.  But now the Romney surge is showing up there, too in the RCP average:

Both developments are enough to individually put Chris Matthews into a straitjacket and then into a rubber room.  Not that he didn’t belong there already.

But just to make sure he enters his rubber room with a mouth frothing with rabis, too, another developement is that Obama is may be losing by four points in Pennsylvania.

The Washington Times has an interesting write-up about all of these recent developments:

EDITORIAL: Romney’s electoral insurgency
Republicans are picking off states while Democrats scramble
By THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Thursday, October 18, 2012

A political tectonic shift is under way. Heading into the final weeks of the  presidential campaign, the electoral map is changing decisively. Areas  previously thought safe for Barack Obama are  becoming competitive, and tossup states are turning into safe havens for Mitt Romney. A month ago, commentators were  claiming the roads to victory were closing for the Romney campaign. Now it’s the  Obama camp hunkering down to make a last stand around a few critical states.

On Thursday, the RealClearPolitics electoral-vote map gave Mr.  Romney the lead for the first time. President Obama  had an 88-vote advantage two weeks ago, but now the challenger leads by five.  This 93-vote swing took place chiefly because four states on the Great Lakes — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin — changed from “leaning Obama” to tossups. This combined 64-vote loss significantly broadened the territory the  Obama team needs to contest.

Last week, Suffolk University  pollster David Paleologos took criticism  for saying Mr. Romney had a lock on Florida,  Virginia and North Carolina, worth a collective 57 electoral votes. Today, that  is orthodoxy. The New York TimesNate Silver, who still points to an Obama  win, has Florida, Virginia and North Carolina in the Romney column as well as  Colorado’s nine electoral votes, which many analysts see as beyond Mr.  Obama’s reach.

Adding up these states puts Mr. Romney’s  base at 257 electoral votes, a mere 13 from victory. This was considered  impossible a few weeks ago. From that substantial position, the Republican could  win by taking Ohio (18 electoral votes), Michigan (16) or Pennsylvania (20).  Even if he lost all three of these large states, he still would end up on top by  taking Wisconsin (10) and one other small swing state from among New Hampshire  (4), Iowa (6) and Nevada (6).

This is the background to Major Garrett’s National Journal report on  Wednesday that Obama operatives have been  reduced to pursuing a four-state strategy. They are entrenching in Ohio, New  Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada in hopes of blocking the Romney endgame and eking out  a victory. Whether this strategic-hamlet approach can prevail against the Romney  insurgency remains to be seen, but it doesn’t account for the fluid nature of  the electoral battle space.

It’s true no Republican has won the White House without the Buckeye State,  but history isn’t destiny. In the 10 elections between 1952 and 1988, California  went for Democrats only in 1964. If Mr.  Obama focuses resources to hold Ohio but loses Pennsylvania or Michigan, he  won’t be re-elected.

Mr. Romney’s options for victory are  increasing while Mr. Obama’s dwindle. As the  Obama campaign hunkers down into its final electoral redoubts, it’s worth  recalling Gen. George S. Patton’s dictum that “fixed fortifications are  monuments to the stupidity of man.” The tighter Mr. Obama tries to grip these four states, the  more likely the election will slip through his fingers.

Obama and his mob of Chicago communists are going to be throwing more crap than monkeys in a dirty cage between now and the election.

Advertisements