Posts Tagged ‘voter turnout’

Three Articles Worth Reading As You Consider The Polls (Especially In Ohio)

September 28, 2012

I’m just going to post three articles without comment and allow you to draw your own conclusion:

Tracking Ohio’s absentee ballot requests.
September 27, 2012
by Moe Lane

We[**] got a guy out there doing just that, and the link to his spreadsheet is here.

Executive summary: the process is ongoing, and what’s being tracked are absentee/early ballot REQUESTS, not turned-in ballots.  So it’s not telling us who’s ahead in Ohio; it’s merely telling us what we know of which party’s members are asking for ballots.  In other words, it’s a possible measure of voter enthusiasm in Ohio.  So…

2012 2008 % of 08
Total 601208 740725 81%
Democrat 177155 288270 61%
Republican 145560 144300 101%
Cuyohoga 159572 231497 69%
D Cuyohoga 86274 119891 72%
R Cuyohoga 38134 35067 109%
Hamilton 61253 102796 60%
D Hamilton 9793 16763 58%
R Hamilton 18304 23677 77%
Summit 39056 92941 42%
D Summit 9581 43524 22%
R Summit 7525 12857 59%

The above shows first the total absentee/early ballot requests of all counties currently reporting*, for both 2008 and 2012; followed by the current totals for three of the top five most populous counties in Ohio (full information is not yet available in [Republican] Franklin and [Democratic] Montgomery counties).  So, in 2008 the total absentee/early ballots for all counties currently captured by the linked spreadsheet was just under 741 thousand; the 2012 equivalent so far is currently 601 thousand, or 81% of 2008′s total.  And when you look at the partisan breakdowns… simply put, the Democrats are not requesting absentee ballots at the same rate as Republicans are.  Of the three counties listed above, only Hamilton is particularly Republican… yet Cuyohoga Democrats have yet to reach their 2008 numbers while the Republican numbers have, and it may still end up that Summit county Republicans will surpass the Democrats there.  In fact, if this trend continues then total Republican early/absentee ballot requests in Ohio may surpass total Democratic ballots; it is uncertain whether the Democrats will match their 2008 totals, while the Republicans very probably will.

Shorter executive summary: what we know of early/absentee ballot requests in Ohio does not support the current narrative that Ohioan Democratic voters are as enthusiastic about voting in 2012 as they were in 2008.  This in turn does not support the current narrative that the Democrats will do better in Ohio in 2012 than they did in 2008.

Moe Lane (crosspost)

*This is an important caveat: there are considerably more counties out there that still need to report in.  This report indicates that there were a total of 1.72 million absentee/early voters in Ohio in 2012; clearly the process has a way to go.

[**UPDATE: For the record, that ‘we’ is generic.]

The point here is that Democrats are at 61% of what they attained in 2008, versus Republicans who are at 101%.

Second article:

Drop in Ohio voter registration, especially in Dem strongholds, mirrors nationwide trend
By Doug McKelway
Published September 27, 2012
FoxNews.com

[See video available at Fox News]

“Don’t boo, vote,” President Obama often says in his stump speech whenever  crowds boo a Romney plan.

The off-hand call to vote may be by design. It comes amid a precipitous  decline in Democratic voter registration in key swing states — nowhere more  apparent than in Ohio.

Voter registration in the Buckeye State is down by 490,000 people from 4  years ago. Of that reduction,. 44 percent is in Cleveland and surrounding  Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one.

“I think what we’re seeing is a lot of spin and hype on the part of the Obama  campaign to try to make it appear that they’re going to cruise to victory in  Ohio,” Cuyahoga County Republican Chairman Rob Frost said. “It’s not just  Cuyahoga County. Nearly 350,000 of those voters are the decrease in the rolls in  the three largest counties, Cuyahoga, Hamilton and Franklin.”

Frost points out that those three counties all contain urban centers, where  the largest Democrat vote traditionally has been.

Ohio is not alone. An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way  showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states  outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. In Florida, Democratic  registration is down 4.9 percent, in Iowa down 9.5 percent. And in New  Hampshire, it’s down down 19.7 percent.

“It’s understandable that enthusiasm is going to wane a little bit from that  historic moment (in 2008),” says Michelle Diggles, the study co-author and  senior policy adviser for Third Way. “You can only elect the first  African-American president of this country once.”

The dip in registration has been framed by some as the result of Republican  efforts to suppress the vote – an accusation that Ohio Secretary of State John  Husted, a Republican, categorically rejects.

“That’s kind of a silly notion that removing deceased people and duplicate  records from the roll has anything to do with voter suppression,” he said. “It  actually has to do with voter integrity. They can’t point to one legally  registered voter that’s actually been removed from the rolls.”

The Third Way study, which was conducted in August, indicates the Democrats’  drop in registered voters coincides with a gain in independent voters.

“There are about half a million more independents now than there were just  for years ago,” Diggles said.

One Democratic Party consultant told Fox News that independents in Ohio may  be leaning Democratic – an effect that may be tied to the bailout of Chrysler  and GM. One of eight people in Ohio work in businesses directly tied to the auto  industry. The state has been carpeted with Obama ads that point to his bailout  of the industry and it’s managed bankruptcy.

Mitt Romney also favored a managed bankruptcy of the auto industry. But he  criticized the expenditure of taxpayer money and the preferential treatment  given to union-linked creditors over the industry’s secured creditors.

Others question the bailout’s effect on swaying the minds of independent  voters. In the words of Diggles, independents are “not a stable voting block at  all.”

Last article:

Asking the experts: Which polls are, or aren’t, legitimate?
posted at 7:47 pm on September 27, 2012 by Allahpundit

After yesterday’s post on poll trustworthiness, I started wondering whether there’s any poll or model that’s been consistently accurate over time and therefore worth watching down the stretch as a weathervane of where the race really stands. I e-mailed two experts whom I trust and put that question to them. Is there any steady signal they trust amid the cacophony of statistical noise? Anyone we can look to as a beacon in the darkness when the NYT drops its next D+10 sample of Utah or whatever on us?

Short answer: No, there’s no one whom they count on to get it more or less right every time. Polling averages did well in 2008 and 2004 but not so well in 2000 and 1996. The first person I spoke to told me flatly that it’s not worth paying much attention to the numbers now because the assumptions being made about the composition of the electorate on November 6 differ too widely among individual pollsters to distill a truly useful average. That uncertainty is compounded by the fact that, with six weeks left until America votes, there’s still an ocean full of potential “black swans” — wonderful/terrible jobs reports, war with Iran, a new eurozone spasm, etc — that could send the trendlines fluttering. (Team Romney told Rich Lowry they think their dip in Gallup’s tracker lately is due to one such black-swan moment whose effects are already fading.) Once we get to within a week or two of election day and pollsters’ assumptions finally start to coalesce, the polling averages will become more reliable as an indicator of where the race really stands. As my own addendum to that, I think we’re close enough to the first debate that there’s no point picking through polls until late next week at the earliest. Why worry about this week’s data when there’s a hugely important event that’s bound to affect the race right around the corner?

My other source had less to say about the reliability of polling averages generally than their reliability with respect to specific candidates. He told me that if you look at historical averages, you find that they underestimated Gore in 2000, Dole in 1996, and Bush 41 in 1992 — all of them dull, somewhat stiff candidates whom their respective bases weren’t thrilled about. Why would polls miss the mark on people like that? His theory is that pollsters pay lots of attention to voter enthusiasm but less attention to whether voters say they’re “certain” to vote, and in the case of candidates who aren’t beloved by their base, those two variables don’t match up especially well. There were plenty of Republicans who weren’t enthusiastic about Bush and Dole but who were nonetheless certain to vote for them in hopes of defeating the Democrat. Ditto for Gore vis-a-vis the GOP. (Kerry and McCain were also dim lights to their bases and the polls gauged their support pretty well, but in McCain’s case he had a huge shot of enthusiasm late from adding Palin to the ticket.) He thinks the same thing could be happening this year — essentially, pollsters are keying off of the Dems’ slight edge in “enthusiasm” and missing the fact that plenty of unenthusiastic Republicans will be at the polls anyway to vote for a guy who’s taken to citing RomneyCare lately as proof of his empathy. If that’s the case, then they’re lowballing Romney’s support. And in a tight race, that’s potentially a decisive error.

See? I am capable of writing a poll post that’s not hopelessly eeyorish. Although I’d be lying if I said this wasn’t how I felt when I saw those Gallup numbers yesterday. Oof.

The guy being shot was actually me on November 4, 2008.  And I thought I’d died so magnificently, too…

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New York Times Woefully Examines The Likelihood Of Another Republican Asskicking House Election In 2012. Then Consider The Implications For Obama.

July 30, 2012

This caught my eye, given all the various predictions and hand-wringing over all the many polls:

For House Democrats 2012 will be at least as bad as 2010, but chances are it will be worse
By Kevin “Coach” Collins, on July 28th, 2012

“If this were just our candidates versus their candidates, I would sign an affidavit that we would pick up 35 seats” so says Congressman Steve Israel the Democrat in charge of getting the House back. This false bravado sums up a big part of the Democrats’ problem: not being able to acknowledge there is a problem.

A hand wringing New York Times analysis lays out the grim situation for its Party:

“The overall dynamic favors Republicans, who look poised to maintain their hold on the House. More Democrats than Republicans have retired in districts where they were endangered, and more Republicans benefited from the decennial redistricting, leaving the Democrats with too small a cushion of Teflon incumbents as they try to regain a majority in the House. Of the 80 races viewed as most competitive by The New York Times, based on polls and interviews with independent analysts, 32 are leaning Republican, 23 are leaning Democratic and 25 are tossups.”

The reality is that these numbers indicate the GOP is poised to win over 50 of these race and maybe more. Because of the cumulative effect of both elections this would be worse than 2010 for the Democrats who could see their numbers fall to the fewest since 1931.

Why this will happen

With less than four months to go compared to 2008 conservative Republican enthusiasm is 16 points higher and liberal Democrat enthusiasm is 22 points lower.

Democrats from local candidates to Barack Obama have no coherent plausible message.

Together they have made America sick so what can they say?

They can’t even keep their “We hate” list straight. They’ve tried to get their base to hate Bain Capital, but couldn’t make their charges stick because they are lies. They’re still trying to get their base to hate the TEA party but every charge they make is a lie so it falls flat. Now they are telling their Christian base to hate Christian doctrine and love Democrats which is also doomed to failure.

There is no group Obama lost in 2008 that he is winning now and no group (not even African Americans) he won in 2008 that he is doing better with today. Now that voters have a clearer idea of what he is all about, Barack Obama will be an even bigger drag on his Party this year than he was in 2010 when the GOP took 63 seats in a landslide not seen since 1938.

Americans are NOT going to the polls to vote against Barack Obama then vote for a Democrat in their Congressional district as Mister Israel fantasizes. Come November Democrat policies will sink them in large numbers.

Follow Coach at twitter.com @KcoachcCoach

To reach your Congressional representative, use this link:

http://www.contactingthecongress.org/

To read more use this link:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/26/us/politics/republicans-and-democrats-fight-for-control-of-the-house.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

To read about how hypocritical the Democrats have been over the past 200 years. Get you copy of Coach’s new book Crooks Thugs and bigots: the lost hidden and changed history of the Democratic Party available at:http://crooksthugsandbigots.com

Here is the map the New York Times created.  It is interactive if you go to the article available (again) here:

I admit, it might be my eyes are messed up or something.  But I don’t see the blue tidal wave of adoration for Obama.  I see the red of a bunch or Republicans rising up in righteous outrage.

We’re seeing a lot of polls coming out that apparently favor Obama.  They have two major weaknesses:

1) Flawed polling methodology.  Recently we had a poll that had Obama up by six points over Romney.  What you have to dig a little more into is the fact that the poll had a sampling distribution that favored Democrats by 11 points over Republicans.  That’s a 2008 model.  Well, please understand: 2008 went bye-bye for Obama.  He’s simply not going to have the sort of overwhelming Democrat tide that he had in 2008 – and any polling methodology that assumes he will is deeply flawed and in fact biased.

When we can routinely point to polls that skew toward Democrats by seventeen points, we can point to an invalid poll.

2) Voter turnout.  I’m not hearing predictions that Democrats will vote for Romney in substantial numbers the way we had “Reagan Democrats.”  The question is, how energized are Democrats to show up and vote?  The fact of the matter is that voter enthusiasm was ALL in Democrats’ favor in 2008 – and the fact of the matter is that it is now a mirror image with the same levels of enthusiasm now favoring Republicans.  The most heavily Democrat voter groups such as blacks and youth are already showing a substantial enthusiasm gap which predict that they will NOT turn out the way they did in 2008.

Fittingly, Democrats have been dropping out in such droves rather than be seen with Obama that Nancy Pelosi has suggested that Democrats should just skip the whole damn thing altogether:

House minority leader Nancy Pelosi says Democratic members should stay home and campaign in their districts rather than go to the party’s national convention in North Carolina.

“I’m not encouraging anyone to go to the convention, having nothing to do with anything except I think they should stay home, campaign in their districts, use their financial and political resources to help them win their election,” Pelosi said in an exclusive interview for POLITICO Live’s “On Congress,” a new weekly show to be streamed live on POLITICO’s website and broadcast on NewsChannel 8 on Wednesdays.

Someone might be able to correct me, but I find this historic. I don’t believe any party leader has ever called for that party to abandon their own national convention.

To add insult to injury for Democrats, the labor unions that form the backbone of the Democrat Party machine are literally planning on holding their own convention and tuning out the DNC Convention in North Carolina:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Three weeks before the Democratic National Convention this summer, union leaders plan to hold their own “shadow convention” to promote labor issues they believe too many elected officials are ignoring.

The union gathering in Philadelphia on Aug. 11 was inspired by the anger many labor officials felt after Democrats decided to stage their nominating convention in North Carolina, a right-to-work state that is the least unionized in the country.

Most unions are still planning to attend the Charlotte, N.C., convention, but more than a dozen are boycotting it. Other unions are not spending big money on the convention as they have in the past.

Does this sound positive for Democrats?  And compare these developments to when Obama was parading around as “the messiah” at the enormous 2008 Democratic National Convention with an ostentatatious Grecian Temple platform to magnify his wonderful wonderfulness.

Numerous polls are assuming it’s Obama messiah magic all over again with their assumptions, but reality seems to be screaming a very different message.

Here’s another example: Democrats are refusing to pay their dues to the Democrat Party to the tune of a full third of the entire caucus not paying ANYTHING to go with an even larger group who have only paid a portion:

Prying open members’ fists is an election year ritual for leaders of both parties, but Democrats contend this time around has been particularly frustrating. Facing a team of deep-pocketed Republican outside groups poised to swamp them in TV ad spending — and with the party not benefiting from the kind of wave conditions that lifted Republicans two years ago — Democrats say the stinginess of their lawmakers has left them severely weakened as the fall campaign season approaches.

Democrats say they’ve tried just about everything to get their colleagues to open their wallets. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has told members that unless they pay their dues in full, they won’t get to partake in the committee’s Democratic National Convention package, complete with access to much sought-after hotel rooms and parties. And in early June, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) tried to shame her members into giving, distributing notes to each of them with a request for cash and asking them if they are part of “the team.”

The push hasn’t had much success. As of June 30, 64 Democrats — around one-third of the entire caucus — hadn’t paid anything to the DCCC, according to a party document provided to POLITICO. Another 109 members had paid only a portion of what they owe in dues, which are calculated based on seniority and committee assignments.

In June, GOP members flooded the National Republican Congressional Committee with nearly $6.4 million. The DCCC secured just $1.8 million from Democratic lawmakers.

THAT is a Democrat enthusiasm gap.  This isn’t a happy, enthused, energized party saying let’s work together to win with and for our messiah.  This is a bunch of professional politicians who see a lot of numbers that the rest of us don’t get to see who are saying in several important ways, “It’s every DemocRAT for himself.”

To other factors promise to make what Democrats are already seeing as really, really bad even WORSE:

1) Money.  Obama raised more money in 2008 than any politician in the entire history of the world.  Guess what’s happened since?  Obama has alienated and frankly enraged many of the deep pockets that he won in 2008 with his lies and empty promises and meaningless rhetoric.  The advantage is now on Romney’s side.  Obama is going deep into the hole now to spend money while Romney is unable to open the floodgates until he is the official GOP nominee, but come August Romney will be able to release the hounds on Obama.  Obama has been attempting – apparently without much success – to demonize Romney and “frame” him before he is able to spend money to answer all the lies in all the bogus Obama ads.  If Romney is able to weather this storm, the worm will begin to turn come August after the GOP Convention.

2) The economy.  Job growth is slowing to so far below the threshold needed just to keep up with population growth it isn’t funny.  We just saw that GDP growth is so meager that we are very close to stall speed and a dreaded double-dip recession.  Consumer confidence is plunging.  Record numbers of Americans are on food stamps compared to any other time in US history and we’ve got more Americans filing for disability than we’ve got Americans getting jobs.  This is by far and away the WEAKEST and most miserable “recovery” in US history because Obama’s policies are so wrong and he simply will not LET the economy recover.

There is absolutely no reason to believe that the economy will get any better between now and election day and damn GOOD reason to believe it will be getting WORSE.  Nouriel Roubini, an economist who is famous for having predicted the 2008 economic implosion, believes that the economy will get WORSE.  Economist Peter Morici is writing about a soon-coming economic collapse.

That’s the real record Obama is running on: from bad to worse.

Obama is running on the assertion that if George W. Bush were still president, there is absolutely no way the CIA and the SEALs could have got Obama.  Why?  Because getting bin Laden was a miracle, and only messiah Obama could possibly have ever performed this miracle.  Obama is running on the assertion that if George W. Bush were still president, the US economy would still be losing 700,000 jobs a month, and only messiah Obama had the superhuman wisdom to lead America to the worst “recovery” in the history of the nation.  The only way “pathetic” can be viewed as “glorious” is if we ignore the reality that 1) no recession has EVER lasted forever and it wouldn’t have lasted forever if George Bush were president, either, and that 2) that most US recessions last less than 18 months with 3) recoveries generally being the strongest when the recessions have been deepest.  Which is to say that if Obama wasn’t an abject failure we’d have GDP growth of 10 percent the way we did when Ronald Reagan was running en route to a landslide re-election.

Obama has to ignore all of that.  He has to say, “This economic holocaust that you see all around you is really a Utopia.  And the Promised Land is right around the corner, ye herd of mindless animals.”

All that said, I’m not going to predict that Mitt Romney wins in a landslide.  Or even that he wins at all.

Why?  Because this is God damn America, just like I told you it would be back in November 4 of 2008.  God damn America is not a land of wise and good people; no, it is a land of fools and wicked people.  And fools and wicked people pursue their own destruction until God gives it to them the way they deserve.

If we re-elect Obama – and 2008 proved there are more than enough fools and wicked people to pull it off – we will get the fools’ end that we demand God give us.

It’s going to come fast, too.  Because Taxmageddon is coming.  And given that the Republicans are going to retake the House, if Obama wins, every American will find himself or herself paying taxes right out of their ass.  And given that pretty much every economist agrees that “taxmageddon” will amount to a double-dip recession, the re-election of Obama will amount to a double-dip recession.  And America will deserve it in spades.

The sequestration that is also looming over America because Barack Obama is a fool and a failure who cannot and will not lead are another nuclear trigger for this double-dip recession: as many as 1.53 million defense sector workers will get their pink slips right before and right after the election unless Obama pulls his skull out of his ass.  And given that Obama has had his skull up his ass his entire life, that isn’t very likely.  Instead, Obama has actually promised to veto any attempt to keep these 1.53 million workers employed.  Which makes the 100,000 jobs that Obama has already pissed away with his idiotic radical environmentalist lobby-owned killing of the Keystone Pipeline look like chump change.

Democrats are already firmly on record vowing to take America off the fiscal cliff unless Republicans abandon all sanity and join them in their Marxist class warfare against job creators and investors:

Democrats threaten to go over ‘fiscal cliff’ if GOP fails to raise taxes
By Lori Montgomery, Published: July 15, Washington Post
Democrats are making increasingly explicit threats about their willingness to let nearly $600 billion worth of tax hikes and spending cuts take effect in January unless Republicans drop their opposition to higher taxes for the nation’s wealthiest households.

Either everybody should get a tax cut or everybody should get taxed up the wazoo.  If you think that somebody else ought to have their taxes raised, YOU SHOULD HAVE YOUR TAXES RAISED.  By the measure that ye judged, YE shall be judged.  You want someone else to pay so you can skate?  You should be taxed until you can’t feed your kids; you should be taxed until you can’t make your house payments; you should be taxed until your car is repossessed.  All of you wicked fools should get both barrels of what you want to inflict on other people.

The only great thing about Mitt Romney is that he is not Barack Hussein Obama.

I’m not enthusiastic about Mitt Romney in any other respect.  His entire career is of being a liberal-leaning moderate – contrary to the demonic Obama ads that depict him as some kind of fire-breathing rightwing conservative fanatic.  But I am TOTALLY enthusiastic about ridding this nation of the scourge of the worst president in our entire history.  And I will crawl out of my death bed through broken glass to vote for Romney for that very reason.