Posts Tagged ‘Zogby’

Herman Cain Surges To Lead In The STILL-Early GOP Primary Race

September 27, 2011

The news is interesting – and not unwelcome:

IBOPE Zogby Poll: Perry Trails Cain in GOP Race
Monday, 26 Sep 2011 05:15 PM

Texas Gov. Rick Perry has tumbled among GOP primary voters and now trails business executive Herman Cain in the race for the nomination, according to the latest IBOPE Zogby Poll.

Cain’s campaign appears to have picked up steam after a win in Florida’s Straw Poll this weekend, while Perry continues to suffer from lackluster performances in GOP debates, the most recent held last Thursday in Orlando.

Perry, at 18 percent, has tumbled by more than 20 percentage points over the past month, according to IBOPE Zogby numbers and is now second to Herman Cain, who leads the field with 28 percent.

Mitt Romney trails the others at number three, with 17 percent of the vote.

The poll, conducted Sept. 23-26 was done after Perry’s performance last Thursday in the most recent debate, but was still in the field as Cain took the Straw Poll win in Florida. Cain was the choice of only 8 percent of the GOP voters a month ago.

The worst news came for Michele Bachmann, who took just 4 percent of the votes — down from 34 percent on June 30.

I took an early stand supporting Rick Perry.  And I STILL support Rick Perry.  But I’ve always liked Herman Cain, too.  My biggest reason for not supporting him was that he hadn’t demonstrated the ability to get a substantial following and WIN.

Perry has been abysmal in the three debates thus far.  He just aint cutting the mustard.  That isn’t fatal – if he can get his ‘A’ game working.  But at this point his poor performances lead to the question: Does the guy even HAVE an ‘A game’?

On Perry’s side, my understanding is that the man had major back surgery, and that the tendency is that he starts out well in debates, and then fades as the pain from standing takes over.  Pain has a way of being very distracting and interfering with the ability to focus and concentrate, and in my own experience when you’ve got a bad back or bad knees, standing is actually far worse than walking.  On the other hand, it doesn’t matter; somehow the man simply has to come through in a major debate or he is going to (deservedly) fade away.

Cain has done well in the debates; personally, I believe either he or Newt Gingrich have won all three (with two out of three going to Gingrich).  And while “debate skills” certainly don’t determine my choice of a candidate, that has got to be a factor.

Why has Bachmann tanked so?  I believe she’s tanked for the exact same reason that Tim Pawlenty tanked.  When Pawlenty tore into Bachmann, it really annoyed me and I lost a lot of respect for Pawlenty.  And now here Bachmann is PERSONALLY attacking Rick Perry, and it really annoys me and I’ve lost a lot of respect for Michelle Bachmann.

Rick Santorum and Michelle Bachmann have chosen to blast away at Rick Perry – who had the lion’s share of the “conservative” vote.  But if you like a candidate (the way I like Rick Perry), do you really think you can tear that candidate to pieces and then I’ll like the person who tore my candidate to pieces?  And it’s not just that; it’s that Mitt Romney – the establishment “moderate” candidate – is laughing all the way to the nomination.  If you want a conservative to win, the worst thing that can happen is that Bachmann, Santorum and Perry cancel each other out.

So with all that going on, it really doesn’t bother me that Herman Cain might be surging.  At least none of the other candidates have placed him in a suicidal death grip – at least yet.

Ultimately, what I most want is for the GOP to take the White House away from the worst president in American history.  Which means I’ll be a loyal soldier to whichever candidate emerges to take on our Marxist-in-Chief.

Polls Most Damning Of Obama Now Were Most Accurate In 2008

September 4, 2009

I was watching CNN and they kept referring to a CNN poll that had Obama’s approval at 53%.  And one of the panelists was arguing, Obama is in good shape; he’s only lost one point from the election.”

Well, that didn’t sound quite – well, sane – to me.  I’ve been seeing polls from Rasmussen and Zogby that have Obama as low as 42%.  So it occurred to me to ask the question, which poll is reflecting reality?  And then it occurred to me to examine the recent past in order to understand who was best representing reality now.

Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos says Rasmussen and Pew were tied for #1.  They were spot-on in predicting the outcome and margin of the 2008 presidential campaign:

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

I couldn’t find recent results for Pew regarding presidential approval, but faith and begorrah, Rasmussen is out there for our review:

Wednesday, September 02, 2009

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 28% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12 (see trends). Republicans have opened their largest lead yet over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot. […]

Overall, 46% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance. Fifty-three percent (53%) now disapprove.

So the number one pollster gives Obama only 46% approval – a far shot from 53%.

This seven point difference between polls is huge because it crosses the middle and brings Obama from still very positive to entering very negative.  At 46%, Obama can no longer claim to have the nation behind him.  On top of that, the people who are coming to genuinely despise him now outnumber the people who truly adore him by a whopping 12 points.

It also tells us that Obama has basically lost a whopping 1/6th of the voters who put him in office.  That doesn’t say much about how people view Obama’s governance.

When you see a CBS poll (which claims Obama’s approval has dipped only slightly at 56%), just realize that they are at the very bottom sucking the scum with the catfish in terms of their credibility.  They dramatically overstated Obama’s popularity during the presidential election; why on earth should you trust them now?

We’re still being told how popular and how wonderful President Obama is by the mainline media.  What we’re NOT being told is that his is the 3rd fastest drop to 50% since scientific polls were taken.  Bill Clinton was the fastest; and his party suffered the most massive defeat in history two years after his election.  He then managed to regain his popularity largely by cooperating with the Republican agenda that proceeded to dominate the rest of his administration.

Zogby has Obama all the way down to 42%, which they primarily attributed to his own Democratic base leaving him.

Don’t let the media fool you into thinking that Barack Obama is the popular president whose views are shared by most Americans.  He’s just not.  He started out nearly as popular as Jimmy Carter when he first took office; and Jimmy Carter seems to be the model this presidency will follow as he leads the country into ruin.

Obama has lost more than 20 points by most polls, and largely squandered his initial popularity and approval by ramming one massive spending initiative and socialist project after another through a liberal Congress that isn’t even bothering to read their bills.  He started with a +30 approval index rating; he has now lost an incredible 42 points at his present -12.

From the moment Barack Obama took over this country, he has advanced one radical agenda after another, one shockingly expensive plan after another.  And a massive movement is beginning.  It is being driven by the same independents who turned against Bush the last two election cycles; they are now turning against Obama in droves.

66% of independents are now opposed to Obama.

Barack Obama does not represent America, or the will of the people.  Rather, he represents the radical leftist fringe of the country.

Obama In The ‘We Don’t Mind ‘Cause You Don’t Matter’ Sub-50% Polling Range

July 25, 2009

One of the most readily understandable political calculus equations is the presidential poll: as long as a president is above 50% in the polls, he continues to hold a majority; but if he falls below 50%, he becomes increasingly irrelevant.  The nation is no longer behind him.  The lower he gets under 50, the more irrelevant he becomes.

Six months into the Obama presidency, Americans are already starting to say, “You see, Barry, it’s all a question of mind over matter.  We no longer mind because you no longer matter.”

For what it’s worth, the first time President Bush dipped below 50% according to Rasmussen was February 2004.  So Barry has to have set some kind of record for “sucking speed.”

Democrats and liberals feasted on George Bush like a herd of swine feasting on a trough full of carrots.  And in the case of the Barack Obama presidency, suppertime is coming very, very early.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Friday, July 24, 2009

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 30% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-eight percent (38%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -8 (see trends).

Just 25% believe that the economic stimulus package has helped the economy.

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates also available on Twitter.

Overall, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance. Today marks the first time his overall approval rating has ever fallen below 50% among Likely Voters nationwide. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of Democrats continue to approve of the President’s performance while 80% of Republicans disapprove. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 37% offer a positive assessment. The President earns approval from 51% of women and 47% of men.

These updates are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Most of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the President’s nationally televised press conference on Wednesday night. The first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after the press conference will be released on Sunday.

Zogby has Barry Hussein at 48%.

Now, the last paragraph of the article becomes interesting because this means the poll does not take into account Obama’s truly suck performance at his July 22 press conference or the subsequent flap over his racially biased and frankly incredibly stupid comment about the Cambridge police “acting stupidly” in arresting an emotionally out-of-control African-American Studies professor.

So the easy money is betting that Sunday we’re going to see Obama down even more.  And then more.

Hot Air has a couple of insightful paragraphs describing the poll’s nuances on just why Obama is starting to poll as badly as he is:

It marks the first time that Obama has gone underwater since he started his remarkable run for the presidency in early 2007.  Undoubtedly, voters have now put the responsibility for the economy squarely on Obama’s shoulders after six months of worsening indicators.  The steep decline in support for his health-care bill represents in part a lack of confidence in his ability to deliver after the failure of the massive stimulus package, which he promised would put America back to work.

Even the Democratic gender gap has mostly been wiped out for Obama.  Although crosstabs are not available on daily tracking reports, Rasmussen’s poll shows an approval rating of 51% among women, just two points above the overall average.  If Obama had hoped to maintain the traditional Democratic inroads with women with his focus on health care, that appears to have backfired, as the survey on that issue earlier in the week showed women opposing it by a 50%-46% edge, with men more clearly in opposition at 53%-44%.  Why? Pluralities among both genders believe that their personal coverage will get worse under ObamaCare.

Unemployment is at 9.5% – and is expected to rise to 10% and beyond by the end of the year.  That sure isn’t going to help Obama become “Mr. Popular.”  And if that isn’t bad enough for him – and for the country he’s misleading – a new employment forecast by Obama’s own Federal Reserve foresees high unemployment numbers for at least the next five years.

But wait, as they say: there’s more.  Respected Wall Street analyst Meredith Whitney predicts that unemployment will rise to 13% or higher.  She’s the analyst with the nickname, “The woman who called Wall Street’s meltdown,” so right now I’m giving her more credibility than Obama’s people who said that if their stimulus passed unemployment wouldn’t rise above 8%.

And there’s yet even more.  We don’t calculate unemployment the way we used to.  We used to calculate unemployment based on the number of people who would like to have a full time job but don’t have one.  Bill Clinton changed the way unemployment was tabulated.  But if this were in the 1980s, we would be reading about 16.5% unemployment.  And if THAT number doesn’t frighten you enough, how about the possibility of 20% by the end of the year?

Remember all the talk about Barack Obama being compared to FDR?

Time_Obama-cover

Now we’ll get to celebrate Obama-as-FDR right – with Great Depression levels of unemployment, which will likely lead us into another Great Depression.  The first FDR didn’t fare so well with the first Great Depression; and I think the second FDR will do an even lousier job.

It will be fun watching Barry “ride the slide” to political hell.

It won’t be so much fun watching the Late Great U.S.A. sliding into economic hell right along with him.

McCain vs. Obama In the Polls: What’s Going ON?

October 8, 2008

I keep hearing about today’s Gallup poll that says Barack Obama holds a 9 point lead over John McCain – a lead which has been growing and growing.  I hear mainstream media professional bloviators assure us the race is basically over.

Man.  It doesn’t sound good for McCain – or me – I think.  And then I look at today’s Zogby poll:

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll:
Obama 48%, McCain 45% as Presidential Race Enters Final Month

The three-day telephone tracking poll shows neither candidate with a clear advantage in the national horserace

UTICA, New York – The race for President of the United States remains far too close to call between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain as the contest enters its last four weeks, and with a pair of crucial debates immediately ahead, the first report of the fall Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone polls shows.

The survey, including a three-day sample of 400 likely voters collected over each of the previous three days – Oct. 4-6, 2008 – shows that Obama holds a slight advantage amounting to 2.4 percentage points over McCain. This represents a bit of a recovery by McCain, who had been sliding in some polls before his running mate, Sarah Palin, put in a strong performance in her one and only debate performance last Thursday. Though a Zogby poll showed that Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden actually won that debate, it also showed Palin far and away exceeded expectations, and that has apparently helped stop McCain’s decline in the polls.

Three Day Tracking Poll

10-6

Obama

47.7

McCain

45.3

Others/Not sure

7.0

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, conducted by live telephone operators in Zogby’s in-house call center in Upstate New York, included a total of 1,237 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

So Gallop has Obama creaming McCain in a landslide; Zogby has a 2.4 point race within the margin of error.

Zogby toots its own horn, but states a fact:

Zogby International was the most accurate pollster in every one of the last three presidential election cycles…

I have frankly become sick of looking at polls, when the numbers are all over the place, and I feel like the purpose of most of them is to play statistical games to misrepresent the real story.