The Polls In Ohio Look A LOT Better For Mitt Romney Than The Media Is Telling You

On the traditional view that Ohio is THE critical state, this made me feel a LOT better about Romney’s chances in Ohio.

If you are a liberal, what can I say?  I hope this makes you feel sad:

Mittmentum: New Ohio Polls Better Than They Appear
By Josh Jordan
October 21, 2012 9:27 P.M.

Two new Ohio polls came out yesterday after my Ohio post, from from Gravis Marketing and PPP, both of which point to a razor-thin race in the most coveted swing state. A closer look at each poll shows just how much Romney has gained since the debates, and why he would be absolutely thrilled if these polls were accurate on Election Day.

The poll from Gravis Marketing shows Obama and Romney tied at 47 percent. But that’s as good as it gets for Obama. Among the most interesting tidbits from the poll:

Romney leads Obama by 19 percent among independents, 52–33, and holds 92 percent of his base compared to Obama’s 87 percent. Obama is underwater in job approval, 44–50, and independents disapprove of him overwhelmingly, 31–58. And the poll has a Democratic advantage of 9 percent, which is a 4 percent jump from 2008 — no one believes that Democrats can match their 2008 turnout advantage, let alone almost double it.

PPP (a Democratic firm) released their new poll yesterday showing Obama only up one point, 49 to 48. Just a week ago PPP had the race at 51–46 for Obama. But the four-point gain for Romney is even more impressive when you look at the poll’s findings:

This week’s poll has a Democrat sample advantage of 8 percent; last week’s advantage was 4. Romney gained four points on Obama in a week despite the sample’s having four percentage points more Democrats. Romney leads with independents by 7 percent, up from a 5 percent last week. Obama’s approval is underwater at 48–50, and independents disapprove of him by a 41–54 margin. Last week Obama was in positive approval ground at 50–48, and independents disapproved by a much smaller 45–50 margin. Romney’s favorability has gone from a minus-6 margin last week (45–51) to a plus-2 this week (49–47). Trust on the economy went from Obama plus-5 last week (51–46) to plus-4 in Romney’s direction this week (51–47). Independents jumped from Romney plus-5 last week to Romney plus-15 this week.

These two polls highlight what many saw in the second debate: Romney may have lost the overall debate, but he won handily on the issues of the economy, debt, and taxes. While Democrats were riding high this week after Obama narrowly won the face-off, Romney was quietly solidifying support from voters by commanding the issues that matter most. Based on these two polls, the only way Obama can win Ohio is if he finds a way to greatly surpass 2008 turnout with Democrats, which at the moment seems like an impossible task. If these polls hold, it won’t be long before the state Romney was declared dead in knocks down the last pillar of inevitability that Obama has left.

— Josh Jordan is a small-business market-research consultant. You can follow him on Twitter @Numbersmuncher.

It’s amazing that only a few weeks ago the (mostly liberal) talking heads said that Romney was dead in Ohio and should pull out.  Now Romney is surging ALL OVER THE COUNTRY and the liberal talking heads are saying Obama should pull out of Florida where again just a few weeks ago the polls said Obma had a six point lead.

Maybe if the polls give Obama a fifty point turnout advantage in their models Obama could look better.  Obama would have to do about twenty times better than he did in 2008 with Democrat turnout, but Chris Matthews is sure it’s possible for messiah given Obama’s power to make legs tingle.

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5 Responses to “The Polls In Ohio Look A LOT Better For Mitt Romney Than The Media Is Telling You”

  1. FMC Says:

    Interesting that Obama has the mainstream media on his side and he is still slipping. Maybe I have been too hard on the average joe. Maybe America has woke up and there is still hope (not Obama’s hope). I can’t wait to hear the wailing and excuses if Romney wins, especially if it’s a landslide, which it should be based on Obama’s pathetic track record. I can’t wait to see the look on Chris Mathew’s face. Obviously, Romney, like every Republican in the past, needs Ohio. I live in Ohio, outside of Toledo, which is dominated by the trade and auto unions and they are rabid Obama supports. There are other areas of the state that are dominated by the unions, but I have hope that Romney will take the Buckeye state. I just have a hard time believing that Ohioans, as a whole, are that stupid, maybe Michiganders but that is a topic for another discussion. Also, considering these polls are skewed towards democrats, Maybe the race in Ohio is not nearly as close as they are making it.

  2. Dog Walker Says:

    Well guys, I just got back from voting. So that is done. I hope I voted right. I was trying to remember who you guys wanted me to vote for… but I was a little bit drunk…

    Kidding aside… The county clerk and secretary of state have implemented procedural changes that I advocated. It was good. I have a higher degree of confidence in the integrity of this election. I feel like I had a positive influence in that.

  3. David Taylor Jr. Says:

    The media is in Obama’s pocket. That’s also why they are screaming foul against the Gallup reading right now.

  4. Michael Eden Says:

    I’d say that the personification of the modern American media is Chris Matthews.

    We’re to the level of Joseph Goebbels and his Ministry of Propaganda.

    A Soviet once said the difference between Russian/Soviet propaganda and American propaganda was that Americans actually believed their propaganda.

  5. Michael Eden Says:


    Actually, as Romney is evening the race in unheard of places like Pennsylvania, there are now MULTIPLE scenarios in which he could lose Ohio and have a credible chance of winning the presidency.

    It’s hard to say for sure whether that first debate simply opened up people’s minds at just the right time to blow away the Obama ad blitz that Romney was evil, or whether the polls decided that it was time to start adjusting their polls to reflect the reality rather than their ideology. But the doors blew open for Romney all of a sudden, didn’t they?

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