Massachusetts Senate Race: Republican Scott Brown LEADING Democrat

Let me just say this.  If Republican Scott Brown defeats Democrat Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts Senate seat special election on January 19th – as is looking increasingly possible – you can bet that Democrats will be in for the mother of all ass-whoopings in November.

And ObamaCare will likely be DOA as the Democrats lose their filibuster-proof majority eight months and change early.


Senate Race Competitive

Raleigh, N.C. – The race to replace Ted Kennedy in the US Senate is looking like a toss up, with Republican Scott Brown up 48-47 on Martha Coakley.

Brown is benefiting from depressed Democratic interest in the election and a huge lead among independents for his surprisingly strong standing. Those planning to vote in the special election only report having voted for Barack Obama in 2008 by a 16 point margin, in contrast to his actual 26 point victory in the state.

That decline in turnout from Obama voters plagued Democratic candidates for Governor in Virginia and New Jersey last fall. Beyond that 66% of Republicans say they’re ‘very excited’ about turning out while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment.

Brown leads 63-31 with independents and is winning 17% of the Democratic vote while Coakley receives only 6% support from GOP voters. Both candidates are relatively popular, with 57% viewing Brown favorably to only 25% unfavorable and 50% with a positive opinion of Coakley to 42% negative.

Those folks planning to vote in the special election are actually opposed to Obama’s health care plan by a 47/41 margin and only narrowly express approval of the President’s overall job performance 44/43.

“The Massachusetts Senate race is shaping up as a potential disaster for Democrats,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Martha Coakley’s complacent campaign has put Scott Brown in a surprisingly strong position and she will need to step it up in the final week to win a victory once thought inevitable.”

PPP surveyed 744 likely Massachusetts voters from January 7th to 9th. The margin of error is +/-3.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached and can be found at

I don’t know which poll is most accurate, or which candidate will win.  But this is a solid, legitimate poll with all the questions and cross tabs available at the Public Policy Polling site, which features the above summary.

If you haven’t done so, let me make a personal appeal for a donation to the Brown campaign.  If you have done so, thank you, and please do so again.

Join me and donate:

You can also get involved by volunteering from your own home in Brown’s Call From Home Program.

And whether you can afford to donate to this incredibly important race or not, please pray for the wisdom of the Massachusetts voters.  And pray for a Scott Brown victory.

This might be our last/only chance to stop the ObamaCare disaster.

UPDATE January 12: Rasmussen’s latest poll confirms the general accuracy of the PPP poll, putting Brown down by only 2 points (49-47).  And given that just one week ago, the same Rasmussen poll had the Democrat Coakley up by 9, we can readily see who has the momentum and who doesn’t.

Republican Scott Brown answered a question about a Republican taking Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat during the debate last night.  He answered saying, “It’s not Ted Kennedy’s seat, and it’s not the Democrat Party’s seat.  It’s the American people’s seat.”

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