McCain vs. Obama In the Polls: What’s Going ON?

I keep hearing about today’s Gallup poll that says Barack Obama holds a 9 point lead over John McCain – a lead which has been growing and growing.  I hear mainstream media professional bloviators assure us the race is basically over.

Man.  It doesn’t sound good for McCain – or me – I think.  And then I look at today’s Zogby poll:

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll:
Obama 48%, McCain 45% as Presidential Race Enters Final Month

The three-day telephone tracking poll shows neither candidate with a clear advantage in the national horserace

UTICA, New York – The race for President of the United States remains far too close to call between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain as the contest enters its last four weeks, and with a pair of crucial debates immediately ahead, the first report of the fall Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone polls shows.

The survey, including a three-day sample of 400 likely voters collected over each of the previous three days – Oct. 4-6, 2008 – shows that Obama holds a slight advantage amounting to 2.4 percentage points over McCain. This represents a bit of a recovery by McCain, who had been sliding in some polls before his running mate, Sarah Palin, put in a strong performance in her one and only debate performance last Thursday. Though a Zogby poll showed that Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden actually won that debate, it also showed Palin far and away exceeded expectations, and that has apparently helped stop McCain’s decline in the polls.

Three Day Tracking Poll	10-6
Obama	47.7
McCain	45.3
Others/Not sure	7.0

The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, conducted by live telephone operators in Zogby’s in-house call center in Upstate New York, included a total of 1,237 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

So Gallop has Obama creaming McCain in a landslide; Zogby has a 2.4 point race within the margin of error.

Zogby toots its own horn, but states a fact:

Zogby International was the most accurate pollster in every one of the last three presidential election cycles…

I have frankly become sick of looking at polls, when the numbers are all over the place, and I feel like the purpose of most of them is to play statistical games to misrepresent the real story.

USA Today: McCain Opens 4 Pt. Lead Over Obama

I should say, “McCain-Biden,” because the attention and energy that made the Republican Convention such a success is largely due to the incredible Governor from Alaska.

Here’s the full article:

Poll: Convention lifts McCain over Obama

By Susan Page, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON — The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an “enthusiasm gap” that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican’s biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.

“The Republicans had a very successful convention and, at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference,” says political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. “He’s in a far better position than his people imagined he would be in at this point.”

However, in an analysis of the impact of political conventions since 1960, Sabato concluded that post-convention polls signal the election’s outcome only about half the time. “You could flip a coin and be about as predictive,” he says. “It is really surprising how quickly convention memories fade.”

McCain has narrowed Obama’s wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate’s top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he’s favored by 3.

The Republican’s ties to President Bush remains a vulnerability. In the poll, 63% say they are concerned he would pursue policies too similar to those of the current president. Bush’s approval rating is 33%.

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

Among the findings:

• Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.

• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.

Obama’s choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.

• McCain’s acceptance speech Thursday received lower ratings than the one Obama gave a week earlier: 15% called McCain’s speech “excellent” compared with 35% for Obama.